Violent protests have broken out in the Central African nation of Burundi following the ruling party's decision to nominate the current President, Pierre Nkurunziza, to run for a third term. Many consider Nkrunziza's move to be unconstitutional, as the presidency is limited to two terms. Yet the president and his party, Conseil National pour la Defense de la Democratie - Forces pour Defense de la Democratie (CNDD-FDD) argue he is eligible to run because he was first elected by members of Parliament, not through a popular vote.
Politically driven judicial decisions to extend presidential terms, or to use legal levers to increase the number of allowable terms by altering constitutions, are not new, in Africa or elsewhere. And no matter where it happens - think Venezuela, Burma or Syria, for example - it always ends badly. Authoritarian systems emerge, and security forces are manipulated to protect those in power, effectively ensuring the development of a police-state. Inevitably, the security forces become economically entrenched. Often, if not properly managed by the Beloved Leader, those forces look for a way to run the whole show.
Regardless of the ultimate outcome, manipulating constitutions always creates extraordinary insecurity. Last fall, Blaise Campaore tried to amend Burkina Faso's constitution so he could remain in the president's office. The effort ended in a coup d'etat. Now we have the constitutional shenanigans in Burundi -the most recent example of how leaders who choose to overstay their welcome bring even more unrest and instability to their countries.
Politicians staying on after their expiration date and personality-driven rather than idea-based leadership are two major governance challenges afflicting Africa as well as other parts of the world. And when dictatorial leaders head the foremost regional body (in this case, Robert Mugabe helming the African Union), it is unrealistic to expect democratic change from the top. Indeed, it actually inspires and empowers leaders aspiring to president-for-life status those to stay in office illegally.
Nigeria
U.S. Vice President Joe Biden recently commended Nigeria's electoral process and incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan's peaceful acceptance of defeat as a strong democratic example for Africa. While Nigeria is a critical country, there was also enormous pressure on the country's leadership to be accountable to the will of the Nigerian people at the ballot box. Boasting Africa's largest population and economy, Nigeria's progress toward establishing a strong democratic tradition is important to the continent. But as long as Nigeria's smaller, less populous neighbors continue in the vein of rule by so-called strongmen, the continent will not and cannot live up to the Africa Rising narrative.
Rwanda & Zimbabwe
Consider Rwanda. Its remarkable economic progress could stand as an inspiring example to other countries in Africa that are not endowed with a wealth of resources. Yet concerns over current President Paul Kagame's leadership and his rumored desire to remain in office for an extended period of time show that democratic maturity can remain hard to achieve even in countries that appear to be making great strides forward. Zimbabwe was in much the same situation in the 1980s, and that story ended in a broken and repressed country rather than a prosperous democracy.
And now Burundi
Nkurunziza's move to run for a third term in Burundi is deeply polarizing. The opposition sees Nkurunziza and the CNDD-FDD as violating the Arusha Accords, the agreement that ended the country's bloody, 13-year-long civil war. In a mature system, the opposition might view the president's legal maneuvering as a political plus - a chance to live on the side of democracy and peel off additional support from those disturbed by the president's gimmick-based bid to retain power. Yet in Burundi, the story is not likely to play out that way.
If the CNDD-FDD is willing to blow off the constitutional limits and play by its own rules to run Nkurunziza for a third term, it will likely have no compunction about distorting the electoral field. Opportunities to manipulate the vote under the threat of violence will likely tip the electoral scales in favor of the ruling party. If Nkurunziza cannot be pressured into abandoning his candidacy, he will likely win.
The United States has condemned the actions of Nkurunziza and his party. But the American track record of supporting those who seek to play by the rules of the democratic game has been spotty of late. (Witness the abandonment of the democratic opposition in Cuba.) While it's surely important for the Washington to support democratizers across the globe, the situation in Burundi gives Africa's democratic leaders an important opportunity to stand for democratic institutions across the continent, not just the systems they have helped to build in their own countries.
While African countries need more concession phone calls like the one Goodluck Jonathan made last month, they also need strong legal systems to peacefully handle constitutional matters, independent electoral oversight bodies, strong and independent media to hold leaders accountable, and a vibrant civil society that can use these institutions to check and balance the various centers of power within a country. Leaders like Nkurunziza should recognize that leadership opportunities extend beyond the presidency and that a nation's growth often requires new leadership.
(AP photo)