Foreign Policy According to MSNBC's Chris Hayes

The temptation to weigh in on every single current event -- usually with the intention of smearing political opponents -- is just too great for some commentators. Take MSNBC's Chris Hayes, for instance. In a recent segment (which you can watch here), Mr. Hayes criticizes John McCain for criticizing Barack Obama's foreign policy and for having a simplistic, black-or-white view of world affairs.

Fair enough. But in criticizing Mr. McCain's naiveté, Mr. Hayes reveals his own:

As someone who follows the news and who doesn't know a ton about Ukraine, I'll admit, I'm confused about what I think should happen, even which side I'm on... And I think that's a natural, and in many cases even laudable, instinct.

Indecisiveness (or a "wait-and-see" approach) is a laudable instinct only if the situation is unclear. The situation in Ukraine isn't unclear. A corrupt, Russia-aligned government run by former President Viktor Yanukovych was ousted by a pro-EU, Western-aligned opposition. Is the opposition perfect? No, of course not. Yulia Tymoshenko, who was once the champion of the pro-EU faction, is widely perceived as being just as corrupt as Mr. Yanukovych. Corruption is entrenched in Ukraine's politics, as it is throughout much of eastern Europe. Also, a few members of the opposition are anti-Semitic.

But, the choice is smack-you-in-the-face obvious: The U.S. and EU should (and likely will) try to pull Ukraine into the EU's orbit, paving a pathway for its entry into the European Union. Feckless though it may be, the EU offers Ukraine a safer future than its current status of dependence on Russia's ultimately self-serving largesse.

Mr. Hayes then goes on to criticize Mr. McCain for choosing sides in Syria and Libya. He is correct that Mr. McCain prematurely chose sides in complex conflicts. But, these countries aren't comparable to Ukraine. Ukraine isn't suffering from an influx of al-Qaeda linked terrorists. In Syria and Libya, it really wasn't clear who the opposition was; in Ukraine, we know who the opposition is.

Mr. Hayes then brings on a guest, Mark Quarterman, who seems to be as clueless about European affairs as he is:

It's not even clear that Mr. Putin views it [Ukraine] in Cold War terms.

Huh? Mr. Quarterman is unsure if Vladimir Putin, a former KGB agent, has a Cold War worldview? Of course he does. His entire strategy to maintain countries like Ukraine and Belarus firmly in Russia's orbit is a relic of Cold War thinking (as is the West's obsession with keeping Ukraine in Europe's orbit). President Obama has flatly stated that this is true. In an interview with Jay Leno, Mr. Obama said, "But there have been times where they [Russia] slip back into Cold War thinking and a Cold War mentality."

Or, we could go straight to the horse's mouth, so to speak. In 2005, Mr. Putin said "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe" of the 20th Century was the fall of the Soviet Union. He couldn't make his opinion much clearer than that. And many Russians believe, very likely including Mr. Putin himself, that Ukraine isn't a real country.

Until last week, the average American journalist probably couldn't find Ukraine on an unlabeled (or perhaps even labeled) map. Today, these same journalists are lecturing us on foreign policy.

How Ukraine's New Government Could Destroy the Country

The crisis in Ukraine took an unexpected turn this weekend. After a deal was struck between President Viktor Yanukovych and the opposition, Mr. Yanukovych ran away. Quite literally. Nobody (except, presumably, a few close allies) knows where he is, though he is suspected to be hiding out in eastern Ukraine or the Crimean peninsula, both of which have large ethnic Russian populations and are sympathetic to the ousted president. A warrant has been issued for his arrest for the mass murder of civilian protesters.

The opposition is now in charge of the country. They must act quickly and carefully to fix Ukraine's enormous problems, otherwise the country could split in two. Here is the opposition's urgent to-do list:

(1) Unify without seeking vengeance. The new government must reunify the country. Mr. Yanukovych's supporters -- including the Kremlin -- feel as though his removal from power was unlawful. That is going to cause long-lasting ill feelings. The new government must make it clear that Mr. Yanukovych's expulsion was due to corruption and corruption only. However, the parliament has already voted to drop Russian as one of the country's official languages. This is a big mistake. It gives the impression that ethnic Ukrainians in the western part of the country despise the ethnic Russians in the eastern half. Does Ukraine really want to have an ethnic conflict added to the current political crisis?

(2) Fix the economy. Ukraine's economy is a shambles. It faces the threat of defaulting on its debt. Banks are limiting cash withdrawals, ostensibly to counter cybercrime, but more likely to prevent a bank run. Ukraine needs to seek immediate assistance from the EU and IMF.

(3) Resist the temptation to engage in corruption. Of course, many Ukrainian politicians probably hold the Demotivator attitude toward corruption, which is, "I want either less corruption or more opportunity to participate in it." But rampant corruption was the underlying reason behind the revolution which deposed Mr. Yanukovych. Therefore, the new government must openly renounce corruption. That very well might mean telling Yulia Tymoshenko, who was jailed under the Yanukovych regime and is widely perceived to be rather corrupt herself, to not run for the presidency.

This list is a tall order for Ukraine. With Mr. Yanukovych's whereabouts (and machinations) unknown, the crisis in Ukraine may be just beginning.

(AP Photo)

Poland's Big Opportunity in Ukraine

The escalating crisis in Ukraine has finally prompted the EU to take action to address the enormous problem on its doorstep. (Okay, by "take action," I mean deciding to hold an emergency meeting. Baby steps, baby steps.) Donald Tusk, the prime minister of Poland, has called for sanctions against Ukrainian government officials.

Instead of just making bold pronouncements, the Polish government has also been working quietly behind the scenes (though, presumably, without dropping F-bombs like U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland). According to the Wall Street Journal:

Concerned with instability in its immediate eastern neighborhood, Poland has so far unsuccessfully tried to mediate between Ukrainian opposition and President Yanukovych.

Here's some unsolicited advice for Mr. Tusk: Try harder. Why? Because if Poland plays a pivotal role in brokering a deal in Ukraine, at least three good things will happen for Poland:

(1) A new government in Ukraine (assuming it will be led by the current opposition) will be grateful to Poland. This will help strengthen ties between the two countries, which will be to their mutual economic benefit. And, it would be one giant step toward integrating Ukraine into the EU and getting it out of Putin's orbit.

(2) Poland will gain more influence in the European Union, which it both deserves and craves.

(3) Poland will earn more respect from the United States, which may help pave the way for getting that visa waiver they have coveted for quite some time.

Of course, negotiating peace in Ukraine is also the right thing to do. But, doing the right thing is always easier if you have some strong incentives.

(AP Photo)

On Iran, Extraordinary Claims Should Require Extraordinary Evidence

The cosmologist Carl Sagan popularized the notion that "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence." Yet when it comes to Iran, it appears the rules of evidentiary common sense are out the window.

Exhibit A (via Larison) is a recent speech by House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in which he claimed that: "If given the opportunity, Iran's leaders would make good on their call to wipe Israel off the map, and armed with nuclear weapons would be a threat to all within range of their missiles, which someday soon may include our own shores."

What Cantor is clearly implying is that once Iran obtains a nuclear weapon (if they do decide to build one) they will use it to wage a suicidal attack against Israel. This is an extraordinary claim, given that no nuclear state has launched an unprovoked nuclear strike against another country no matter how bitter the rivalry. Of course, it's possible that Iran's leaders may decide to do something that's clearly insane, but the weight of historical evidence against this claim is enormous and self-evident. Pakistan has not nuked India (or vice-versa). The U.S. and Soviet Union avoided nuclear war, despite some harrowingly close calls. States that obtain nuclear weapons, with the single exception of the United States during World War II, do not use them.

If Cantor believes Iran will break this pattern, he needs to back it up with serious evidence, not a wave of the hand.

'F*** the EU': U.S. Diplomat Just Keepin' It Real

Victoria Nuland, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, is in a bit of diplomatic trouble. The European Union has sat idly by while its neighbor to the east, Ukraine, has been experiencing mass anti-government protests since late November. During a phone call with the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, Ms. Nuland let off some steam by saying, "F*** the EU." Unbeknownst to her, the phone call was tapped, and it seems likely that Russia is the culprit (thus proving once again that everybody spies on everybody).

Now, the EU is upset. Or, at least Angela Merkel, the de facto empress of the EU, is pretending to be. However, what you won't hear in all of the press coverage is that "f*** the EU" is a rather common sentiment, particularly among citizens of the European Union.

Take Germany, for instance. An upstart political party called Alternative for Deutschland (AfD), which favors abandoning the euro and reintroducing the Deutsche mark, received 4.7 percent of the vote in the recent parliamentary election, just shy of the 5 percent threshold required to enter the government. Elsewhere in Europe, Euroskeptic parties are growing. The UK Independence Party (UKIP), which favors leaving the EU, has become so influential that Prime Minister David Cameron insists on holding a referendum in 2017 on whether or not his nation should remain in the institution. Even the French don't like Europe that much anymore.

Additionally, a poll released in May 2013 showed a precipitous drop, from 60 percent to 45 percent, in favorability rataings for the EU among eight core countries (Germany, UK, France, Italy, Spain, Greece, Poland and the Czech Republic). In fact, dissatisfaction with the EU is so great and widespread that The Economist reported that between 16 and 25 percent of the EU Parliament's seats could be won by left- and right-wing Euroskeptic parties in the upcoming election in May. It's difficult to imagine a louder "f*** the EU" statement than that.

Perhaps EU leaders should worry more about the opinion of their own citizens than that of a boorish Yankee.

(AP Photo)

If You're Going to Sochi, Take a Flak Jacket

If you're going to San Francisco, be sure to wear some flowers in your hair. If you're going to Sochi, however, you might want to consider a flak jacket.

Many observers are still wondering why the International Olympic Committee chose Sochi to begin with. The average temperature in February is a balmy 43 degrees Fahrenheit, with daily highs hitting around 51 degrees. At nighttime, it doesn't generally drop below freezing. The Russian organizers "guarantee snow" by holding events at a ski resort in the mountains outside the city or, if all else fails, making artificial snow. The Russians even stockpiled snow from previous winters and kept it around, just in case. Maybe that's why the price tag for this Winter Olympics totals $51 billion -- more than the last three Winter Olympics combined.

Then there's the whole terrorism thing. Sochi is located on the Black Sea, near the troubled North Caucasus region that is home to many Islamic separatists. Dagestan, the region with which the Boston bombers had ties, and the city of Volgograd, which suffered a twin terrorist attack in December, are in the vicinity. (Both are roughly 600 miles away.)

As if recent events in the region weren't disturbing enough, U.S. officials yesterday announced the possibility of "toothpaste bombs" being brought on flights to Russia. And a USA Today report details how Russian intelligence isn't very good at fighting terrorism. It's no wonder that 57 percent of Americans think there will be a terrorist attack in Sochi.

For the sake of the world's athletes and fans, let's hope not.

(AP Photo)