China - a fat guy running on meth?
That's the evocative imagery used by Michael Pettis to describe China's stimulus-induced growth strategy:
'It is as if you saw a middle-aged man in terrible physical shape running a marathon, and you predicted that after five or six miles he would be forced to quit. If however he took out a syringe and shot himself up with crystal meth, he would be able to continue running a few more miles, but this doesnâ??t mean that your analysis and prediction were wrong. It means that in a few more miles he will be worse off than ever (or will have to take an even bigger dose of crystal meth).'
That's via Naomi Rovnick who offers some bullish takes on China:
'The Beijing government has not announced a major economic stimulus project, as it did in 2009-10. But since the summer, central and local planners have begun propping up GDP with lavish spending on new projects. Industrial production rose 9.2% in September, year on year, after touching a 39-month low in August. So it is likely Chinese manufacturers are seeing the horrific conditions they have been laboring under start to ease.'
I would say there are about as many people worried about a crashing (but not collapsing) China as there are about a rising one.