Gaddafi's Incentives

By Greg Scoblete
July 27, 2011

Gaddafi has no incentive to stop fighting.

'Mr Cameron and his allies had clearly not bargained for such obstinacy when they first embarked on their Libyan adventure. With the onset of Ramadan rapidly approaching (it is due to start on Monday, depending on the visibility of the new moon), Gaddafiâ??s intransigence has seen the coalition resort to ever more desperate measures. This includes the French supplying arms to the rebels â?? a clear breach of UN resolutions â?? and the Americans sending a secret delegation to persuade Gaddafi to surrender. - Con Coughlin'

The problem for the NATO mission is there is a huge mismatch in incentives. NATO is fighting in Libya for a mix of reasons, but none of them urgent or central to the survival of Western civilization. Gaddafi, on the other hand, is fighting for his life. There is a warrant out for his arrest from the International Criminal Court, so he can't leave the country. Yet if he remains inside Libya but out of power, he would be a risk, and at risk, as long as he survived.

This has, in short, turned into a debacle.

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