Is Egypt good for bin Laden?
Michael Scheuer isn't enthused about the overthrow of Mubarak:
'Bin Laden, his lieutenants, and their allies know that after the Western media returns to what it does best -- isnâ??t Lindsey Lohan due in court? -- Muslim Egyptians will be reaching for Allahâ??s rope, not Facebookâ??s self-deification. And the Islamists also will know the stout wall of U.S.-and-Israeli-supported Arab tyranny they have long attacked is cracking.When the West sees pious Egyptians moving toward Islam, not secular democracy, bin Laden will have thanked God for His gifts to the mujahedin. Having designated Arab police states and Israel as Islamâ??s main enemies -- brain-dead America simply being in the way due to its money and guns -- bin Laden et. al. now see the ruins of the strongest Arab tyranny, as well as the most loyal, least demanding ally secured by Washingtonâ??s relentless intervention in the Muslim world. They know whatever regime follows Mubarak will be weaker, more influenced by those demanding a form of Sharia law -- including General Clapperâ??s Kiwanis-in-waiting, the Muslim Brotherhood -- and, being a democracy, more representative of Egyptiansâ?? deep, abiding hatred for Israel.
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I think it's true that in the near-term, the goals of U.S. democracy promoters and bin Laden have overlapped. Both want the old Middle Eastern order swept away. Scheuer seems to think that in doing so, more of the Middle East will move in bin Laden's direction, but is that true? A Middle East that's less receptive to the U.S. and Israel is still a far cry from a Middle East that wages open war against the U.S. and Israel (which is presumably the bin Laden program).
The old order is what created bin Laden's jihad in the first place. If the Obama administration cheered on a Mubarak crack down, wouldn't that do wonders for al-Qaeda recruitment?
(AP Photo)