Did Hu Jianto know about the J-20 test flight?
Galrahn at Information Dissemination is worried about the implications of China's test of its J-20 stealth jet:
'It isn't China's military technology I am concerned about, at least not today or anytime in the near future. It is how difficult it is to build a relationship on trust with China when you are given every impression that the President of China is probably being dishonest, or disingenuous at best, to your face in a discussion where you sit across from one another. Know your history - this is what the Japanese were like in the 1930s.'
Meanwhile, Bill Bishop runs down various interpretations of the test flight and of reports that Chinese President Hu Jianto did not know the test was about to go down:
'1. Hu did not know. This is the terrifying scenario, as it means that in spite of his role as head of the CMC and his promotion of many top generals, the PLA is at risk of major rupture with the Party and civilian leadership. In this scenario we can expect the jockeying for 2012 succession to be especially brutal and potentially spill outside Chinaâ??s borders;2. The senior defense official simply misunderstood the Chinese reaction and/or was misunderstood by the reporters. While it is probable that many of the Chinese government officials (aka civilians) did not know, Hu as head of CMC did know (UPDATE: Victor Shih suggested that Hu likely approved the flight but left the timing up to the PLA). Perhaps there is some ambiguity around the quote â??it was clear the civilian leadership was uninformedâ? that led to the conclusion that Hu was unaware of the flight, as people assume he is a â??civilianâ? and not also military given his role as Chairman of the CMC;
3. The senior defense official has a bias towards believing in a civilian-military split, and/or has an agenda to push said â??splitâ?Â. â??Evidenceâ? that the PLA has â??gone rogueâ? would be a boon to the Pentagon and defense contractors;
4. The Chinese put on an elaborate charade designed to lead US officials to believe in a military-civilian split. Why would they do this? Perhaps they think that if the US believes that Hu is weakened and in a power struggle with the â??hardlinersâ? then the US will go easy on him to avoid â??underminingâ? him and upsetting a â??delicate balanceâ?Â. If you think this suggestion is crazy you are behind in your reading of Chinese military classics like â??Art of Warâ?Â, â??Three Kingdomsâ? and others.
'
I lean toward #2, but am not really sure at this point.
(AP Photo)