Paul Rogers analyzes the recent terror attack against a Japanese oil tanker in the Persian Gulf:
'Now, after the attack on the M. Star, the activities of the United States navy in both the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz will almost certainly be expanded. But the full implications of the operation are far from being met by this likely military response.These can better be grasped by putting three developments that mark the current situation into a common frame:
* the re-emergence of al-Qaida affiliates in Iraq
* the increasing influence of the movement in Yemen
* the attack on the M. Star itself - which was most likely mounted from yet another state.
The emphasis of many counter-terror analysts on events in Afghanistan and Pakistan - including the revival of the Taliban and its broadening Pushtun and/or nationalist appeal, and the impact of drone-attacks in killing or disabling al-Qaida leaders in Pakistan - has tended to reinforce the argument that the core al-Qaida movement is in decline.
The flaw in this perspective is that it ignores the larger lesson of the evolution of al-Qaida over a decade: that the movement is less a tightly organised and rigidly hierarchical group cohering around a clear and unified strategy, and much more a loose cluster of like-minded networks in many different countries, linked by a shared worldview and by diverse financial, technical and human connections.
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If this is indeed the case, someone should ask the Obama administration why a massive counter-insurgency directed at Afghanistan is the proper antidote to the terror threat.
(AP Photo)