A Photo Finish in Australia's Election?

'The incumbent prime minister insists that the ballot will be close. But it might just be that she wants to downplay expectations and keep voters engaged. Surveys are already showing that Labor is gaining momentum. The latest Newspoll places the ALP ahead with 42 per cent, against 38 per cent for the conservative coalition of Liberals and National. In the two party preferred vote system, the ALP leads by five points.

An earlier Newspoll had shown that, while 47 per cent of Australians think Gillard will be a similar leader to Rudd, 38 per cent say she will be a better leader for the ALP.

One understated fact is that, despite losing his partyâ??s support, Rudd was not as unpopular as perceived, especially not in relative terms compared to Liberal leader Tony Abbott. A late June poll showed Ruddâ??s popularity at 36 per cent, practically tied with Abbottâ??s 38 per centâ??a considerable number of world leaders yearn for this rate of acceptance. The same survey revealed that Rudd was still the preferred prime minister between the two by a wide margin.

Ruddâ??s administration leaves Gillard in a good position to accomplish some election promises that he was not able to fulfill, such as implementing a cap-and-trade system for carbon emissions. His government oversaw one of the most stable economies during the global recession, as it increased trade with China, Australiaâ??s largest trading partner. Gillard has said she will definitely pursue "putting a price on carbon" and says it is still possible to bring the budget back to surplus in 2013.

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