Will Obama attack Iran?
I have always operated under the assumption that the Obama administration would rather "live with" a nuclear Iran than launch a military operation to stop them. I based that assumption on the grounds that Obama opposed the Iraq war and was elected at least in some measure on the basis of his anti Iraq war stance. Given the rough similarities between a preventative war in Iraq in 2003 and a preventative military strike against Iran, combined with the public statements from some senior defense officials (Gates and Mullen), I figured Obama would pass on the opportunity.
Reading this piece in the NY Times, however, I'm less sure:
'Pressed on the administrationâ??s ambiguous phrases until now about how close the United States was willing to allow Iranâ??s program to proceed, a senior administration official described last week in somewhat clearer terms that there was a line Iran would not be permitted to cross.The official said that the United States would ensure that Iran would not â??acquire a nuclear capability,â? a step Tehran could get to well before it developed a sophisticated weapon. â??That includes the ability to have a breakout,â? he said, using the term nuclear specialists apply to a country that suddenly renounces the nonproliferation treaty and uses its technology to build a small arsenal. [Emphasis mine]
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We don't know who this senior administration official is, so he or she could be talking out of turn, but the implications of the rhetoric are clear enough. If the diplomatic and sanctions tracks fail (which I suspect they will) the Obama administration will use military force. Is there any other way to read that? And does this really reflect President Obama's thinking?
(AP Photo)