The New York Times' Martin Fackler had a good article over the weekend about China's increasing clout with Japan:
'Indeed, political experts and former diplomats say China has appeared more adept at handling Japanâ??s new leaders than the Obama administration has been. And former diplomats here warn that Beijingâ??s leaders are seizing on the momentous political changes in Tokyo as a chance to improve ties with Japan â?? and possibly drive a wedge between the United States and Japan.â??This has been a golden opportunity for China,â? said Kunihiko Miyake, a former high-ranking Japanese diplomat who was stationed in Beijing. â??The Chinese are showing a friendlier face than Washington to counterbalance U.S. influence, if not separate Japan from the U.S.â?Â
Some conservative Japan experts in Washington have even warned of a more independent Tokyo becoming reluctant to support the United States in a future confrontation with China over such issues as Taiwan, or even to continue hosting the some 50,000 American military personnel now based in Japan.
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This is not an "either/or" problem for the U.S. or Japan. The Japanese are already economically intertwined with China and so naturally, good relations with China is a key interest. They are also in our interest as it lessons security concerns between two historic enemies.
The basic reality of China's rise is that it is going to come with more influence in Asia and it is going to lead to a decline in America's influence relative to its former position. This isn't irreversible - China's economy could collapse, it could suffer internal revolts that erode its power, or it could behave in such as fashion as to galvanize surrounding nations to balance against her (pushing them into a tighter embrace of the U.S.). But barring that, China's influence in Asia is going to expand.
In such a circumstance, I think taking a "wait and see" attitude is better than panicking at every diminution or diplomatic slight. Even reducing America's military footprint in Japan isn't the end of the world, especially if it's coming at the behest of the Japanese.
(AP Photo)