-
Dec 11, 2024
The Middle East has broken down into a state of extreme combat. The collapse of the system of governance throughout the region has opened up new fronts of warfare.
-
Nov 18, 2024
As I wrote in my most recent book, “The Storm Before the Calm,” we tend to use presidencies as benchmarks to help us locate where we are in time, but it would be a...
-
Nov 14, 2024
Last week, I wrote on the Middle East and promised a follow-up piece would come next. The U.S. election intruded. Now I’ll return to the second part on the Middle East.
-
Nov 12, 2024
We tend to view unrest as an internal event, usually contained in a given nation or region. But sometimes there are cases in which unrest spreads through fear or greed beyond a...
-
Nov 6, 2024
The Middle East is in disarray, and it’s unclear if it can stabilize itself on its own. In many cases, a nation’s military can serve this function if it’s strong...
-
Oct 28, 2024
I’ve encountered some version of this missive throughout the course of my career.
-
Oct 22, 2024
The end of the Cold War and the dismantling of what had been a bipolar world order raised the question of what exactly constitutes a superpower. The question has been bandied about...
-
Oct 15, 2024
Readers have no doubt noticed that much of my writing over the past two-and-a-half years has focused on Russia. Some of the reasons for this are obvious: Russia is a global military...
-
Oct 7, 2024
Last week, I wrote an article on the two wars raging in Eurasia. It was “idiosyncratic” in that, unlike other columns circling the mediasphere, it focused on how...
-
Sep 30, 2024
There are two major wars being fought. One, between Ukraine and Russia, has been raging for more than two and a half years but has been roughly confined to Ukraine. The other,...
-
Sep 23, 2024
With the situation in northern Israel now escalating, it’s imperative to take stock of the purpose of the Oct. 7 attacks and what it might mean for the future of the...
-
Sep 18, 2024
Moscow’s announcement of a dramatic increase in the size of the Russian army by 180,000 new recruits appears to threaten a major increase in Russian combat capability against...
-
Sep 10, 2024
News reports tying China to Brazil are fairly rare from a military perspective. Generally speaking, Brazil holds no great interest for China other than run-of-the-mill resource...
-
Sep 3, 2024
The ground war in Ukraine appears to have come to a halt. There is, of course, continued movement at the tactical level, but a definitive outcome is not in the offing. The gridlock...
-
Aug 27, 2024
Small things can reveal much larger geopolitical truths. Such is the case of a recent meeting of the U.S.-China financial working group. The group, which consists of representatives...
-
Aug 20, 2024
Two and a half years ago, Russia invaded Ukraine, a former part of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union. The reason for the invasion was geostrategic: Moscow justifiably feared...
-
Aug 12, 2024
Last week, Ukraine did what many thought impossible when it invaded Russia – and, indeed, something that had not happened since World War II. The implications are many, but...
-
Aug 9, 2024
Over the past few days, two statements have come to redefine the Middle East – though they were issued not by Israel or Hamas but by the belligerents in a conflict more than a...
-
Jul 23, 2024
One of the most important outcomes of the U.S. presidential race may be how it affects the United States’ relationship with Europe. Donald Trump has clearly stated that he...
-
Jul 16, 2024
The instability in the United States predicted by our model continued this weekend with the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump. It should be...
-
Jul 8, 2024
There are certain pressures that reverberate throughout the globe that can manifest in different realms, including the economy, the military and the legal system.
-
Jul 1, 2024
Devoted readers will recall what I wrote in my most recent book, “The Storm Before the Calm,” and in subsequent articles here on GPF: that the United States operates on...
-
Jun 18, 2024
The international system is always changing. It usually shifts one piece at a time, each one constrained by the system to dampen its impact – and thus maintain balance and...
-
Jun 11, 2024
Major news publications around the world are rife lately with articles noting how the decline in birth rates has reached a critical mass. Over the past years, life expectancy has...
-
Jun 4, 2024
Last week, Moscow revived an oft-repeated threat to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Their use, of course, requires a few important things. They must be deliverable, and they must...
-
May 28, 2024
Under President Vladimir Putin, Russia invaded Ukraine under the assumption that Ukraine’s defeat would be rapid and complete, bringing Russia to NATO’s eastern...
-
May 21, 2024
The Russian government announced last week a massive shakeup of its senior staff. Several ministers in civilian sectors such as energy, agriculture, industry and trade, and...
-
May 15, 2024
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a piece about mass demonstrations in Budapest in which protesters expressed resentment against alleged financial corruption running rampant through the...
-
May 6, 2024
In my book “The Storm Before the Calm,” I wrote that the United States is headed into institutional and socio-economic crises. The institutional crisis, in my view, would...
-
May 1, 2024
When I was in graduate school, a small group of my peers and I spent considerable time examining the circumstances under which it would be possible for one nuclear power to launch a...
-
Apr 29, 2024
The culture of the Israeli military was shaped in October 1973, when Egypt and Syria attacked without warning. Importantly, the assault represented a direct threat to American...
-
Apr 22, 2024
At an economic forum last week in Shanghai, a senior Chinese government adviser named Liu Yuanchun, who is also the president of the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,...
-
Apr 15, 2024
The U.S. has adopted a national strategy designed to use force without risking casualties of its own.
-
Apr 9, 2024
Viktor Orban governed Hungary from 1998 to 2002 and again from 2010 to the present. In that time, he has dominated Hungarian politics and, to a great extent, Hungarian life.
-
Apr 2, 2024
The moon will soon totally eclipse the sun – an event rare enough to be measured in centuries.
-
Mar 22, 2024
The culture of the Israeli military was shaped in October 1973, when Egypt and Syria attacked without warning. Importantly, the assault represented a direct threat to American...
-
Mar 5, 2024
Understanding why Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7 requires an understanding of Hamas’ fundamental goal: the creation of a Palestinian state.
-
Feb 27, 2024
It’s been two years since Russia invaded Ukraine, so it’s time to lay out the strategic situation as I see it. In February 2022, I argued that Russia invaded Ukraine...
-
Feb 20, 2024
Alexei Navalny was an opponent of the Russian regime, and for his trouble, he was sent to prison – a gulag, as it was called under the Soviets – after being poisoned the...
-
Feb 13, 2024
Russian President Vladimir Putin did something unprecedented last week: He held a two-hour press conference directed at the American public. It was not exactly a press conference, in...
-
Feb 7, 2024
Many argue that the United States should not have involved itself in the Ukraine war. For some, it’s a matter of national interest; for others, it’s simply too expensive....
-
Jan 24, 2024
I have written a great deal about socio-economic cycles but far less on institutional cycles, specifically how the fourth institutional cycle in American history will emerge. But now...
-
Jan 16, 2024
The trilateral security partnership comprising the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia – known simply as AUKUS – is among the most interesting alliances in...
Jul 1, 2024Devoted readers will recall what I wrote in my most recent book, “The Storm Before the Calm,” and in subsequent articles here on GPF: that the United States operates on...
Jun 18, 2024The international system is always changing. It usually shifts one piece at a time, each one constrained by the system to dampen its impact – and thus maintain balance and...
Jun 11, 2024Major news publications around the world are rife lately with articles noting how the decline in birth rates has reached a critical mass. Over the past years, life expectancy has...
Jun 4, 2024Last week, Moscow revived an oft-repeated threat to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Their use, of course, requires a few important things. They must be deliverable, and they must...
May 28, 2024Under President Vladimir Putin, Russia invaded Ukraine under the assumption that Ukraine’s defeat would be rapid and complete, bringing Russia to NATO’s eastern...
May 21, 2024The Russian government announced last week a massive shakeup of its senior staff. Several ministers in civilian sectors such as energy, agriculture, industry and trade, and...
May 15, 2024A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a piece about mass demonstrations in Budapest in which protesters expressed resentment against alleged financial corruption running rampant through the...
May 6, 2024In my book “The Storm Before the Calm,” I wrote that the United States is headed into institutional and socio-economic crises. The institutional crisis, in my view, would...
May 1, 2024When I was in graduate school, a small group of my peers and I spent considerable time examining the circumstances under which it would be possible for one nuclear power to launch a...
Apr 29, 2024The culture of the Israeli military was shaped in October 1973, when Egypt and Syria attacked without warning. Importantly, the assault represented a direct threat to American...
Apr 22, 2024At an economic forum last week in Shanghai, a senior Chinese government adviser named Liu Yuanchun, who is also the president of the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,...
Apr 15, 2024The U.S. has adopted a national strategy designed to use force without risking casualties of its own.
Apr 2, 2024The moon will soon totally eclipse the sun – an event rare enough to be measured in centuries. 
Mar 22, 2024The culture of the Israeli military was shaped in October 1973, when Egypt and Syria attacked without warning. Importantly, the assault represented a direct threat to American...
Mar 5, 2024Understanding why Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7 requires an understanding of Hamas’ fundamental goal: the creation of a Palestinian state. 
Feb 27, 2024It’s been two years since Russia invaded Ukraine, so it’s time to lay out the strategic situation as I see it. In February 2022, I argued that Russia invaded Ukraine...
Feb 20, 2024Alexei Navalny was an opponent of the Russian regime, and for his trouble, he was sent to prison – a gulag, as it was called under the Soviets – after being poisoned the...
Feb 13, 2024Russian President Vladimir Putin did something unprecedented last week: He held a two-hour press conference directed at the American public. It was not exactly a press conference, in...
Feb 7, 2024Many argue that the United States should not have involved itself in the Ukraine war. For some, it’s a matter of national interest; for others, it’s simply too expensive....
Jan 24, 2024I have written a great deal about socio-economic cycles but far less on institutional cycles, specifically how the fourth institutional cycle in American history will emerge. But now...
Jan 16, 2024The trilateral security partnership comprising the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia – known simply as AUKUS – is among the most interesting alliances in...