Ukraine Must Be Involved in Peace Talks

Last week, various news outlets reported that senior officials from the Trump-Vance administration would be meeting with their Russian counterparts to discuss an end to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The negotiations are expected to take place this week in Saudi Arabia, where President Trump’s officials will attempt to broker an end to the war.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, and Middle East Special Envoy Steve Witkoff will all be present in Saudi Arabia to speak with their Russian counterparts. However, Special Envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg will noticeably be absent from the peace talks. Instead, he will be traveling to Ukraine to speak with Ukrainian officials on ways to end the war.

For nearly three years, the Russians have waged their full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Numerous Ukrainian cities and villages have been destroyed, and Russian forces have killed thousands of Ukrainians. The war has displaced one-fourth of Ukraine’s population, and economists predict that it will take $1 trillion to rebuild Ukraine. Simply put, the war has been devastating.

Despite this death and destruction, the Russians have shown no signs of ending the war. As a result, President Donald Trump has decided to take it upon himself to try to end the war. He has previously said that the Russian invasion has been deadly, and that he wants to stop the killing.

“It is time to stop this ridiculous war,” Trump recently said on his social media page. “There has been massive, and totally unnecessary, DEATH and DESTRUCTION.”

While it is welcomed that the U.S. president would like to bring an end to the war, the upcoming peace talks in Saudia Arabia are a cause for concern. According to reports, only U.S. and Russian officials will be present to discuss the end to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Europeans or the Ukrainians were not invited. Instead, a separate set of negotiations will be held in Ukraine between Kellogg and the Ukrainians. However isolating the Ukrainians and Europeans from the main peace talks in Saudia Arabia will put the future of Ukraine and Europe in jeopardy.

First, without Ukrainian and European representation, Russia will be allowed to dictate the future of Europe. The Russians have previously stated that they want to control territory in southern and eastern Ukraine. Giving this territory to Russia would reward that country for its unprovoked war, and it would undermine the authority of Western states.

Furthermore, the Russians would argue that Ukraine cannot be permitted to join the European Union or NATO, and the Russians would state that the Europeans would not be allowed to send peacekeeping forces to Ukraine. These demands would undermine European security as the Russians would be closer to the borders of the European Union and NATO member states. This would give Russia power over Western organizations and institutions, as Russia could dictate which countries on its borders could engage with these groups. In other words, countries bordering Russia would lose their sovereignty as they could not make their own decisions. Finally, forcing Ukraine to capitulate to Russia would result in another wave of refugees entering Western and Central Europe. This would put further strains on European governments, and it would strengthen Russia.

Second, forcing a peace agreement with Russia without Ukraine ignores Ukrainian voices. According to a recent Gallup survey, 81% of Ukrainians believe that the only way the Russian invasion can end is by fully liberating the Russian-occupied territories. Most of the country thinks the Ukrainian military can successfully defeat Russia. In addition, 92% of Ukrainians support the Ukrainian army, and over 60% still approve of President Zelensky and his handling of the war.

Gallup’s findings are consistent with those of other institutions. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the International Republican Institute, the National Democratic Institute, and other organizations conducted their independent surveys, where they inquired with Ukrainians about the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These surveys also found that the majority of Ukrainians believe the only way the Russian invasion of Ukraine can end is by forcing the Russians out of their country. These survey results also suggest that despite the death and destruction caused by the three-year war, Ukrainians are “still willing to do whatever it takes to defeat Russian aggression.” In other words, a U.S. peace plan with Russia without Ukrainian or European representation ignores Ukraine’s desires and goals. (The author of this article inquired about the proposed peace plan with current and previous Ukrainian government officials. Each person he spoke to, under anonymity, stated that the Ukrainian government would not agree to terms that were unfavorable to Ukraine. The Ukrainian government will also not accept peace negotiations without Ukrainian representation.)

Finally, nothing suggests that Russia would uphold a peace plan for Ukraine. In fact, the Russian Federation has a history of violating ceasefires and treaties. For example, during the Russo-Georgian War in August 2008, Russian forces invaded the Georgian provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. As the Russians killed hundreds of Georgians, Georgian officials called on the international community to intervene. France would broker a ceasefire between Georgian and Russia, where the terms of the agreement stated that Russia would have to withdraw from the Russian-occupied regions of Georgia. The Russians, however, ignored the terms. To this day, Russia still maintains a presence in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Then, during the first Russian invasion of Ukraine in April 2014, Russian troops took over parts of the Ukrainian provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk. After several months of fighting, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe met with Ukrainian and Russian officials to implement the Minsk I and Minsk II Agreements. The ceasefires called for the Russians to withdraw defense equipment and hardware from these Ukrainian territories. The Minsk Agreements also ordered Russia to de-escalate the region. Instead, Russia maintained its military presence in Luhansk and Donetsk. By February 2022, the Russians violated the ceasefires entirely by launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. These two examples, among others, suggest that a peace plan between the United States and Russia would not be upheld. Instead, Russia would use it as an opportunity to regroup and re-strategize its forces, where it could then potentially launch a future invasion.

Overall, an end to the Russian invasion of Ukraine is much needed. The war has taken a serious toll on Ukrainian lives and the Ukrainian economy, and Ukrainians want nothing more than peace. But peace must occur on Ukraine’s terms. The current peace talks may be well intended, but holding negotiations without the Ukrainians and the Europeans is dangerous. Holding two separate negotiations, where the Americans have isolated the Europeans and the Ukrainians from the main talks in Saudi Arabia with the Russians will only acknowledge Russian gains in Ukraine, and it will strengthen Russia’s position on the European continent. This will only lead to greater challenges and complications between Europe and Russia.

The Russian Federation cannot be allowed to succeed. The Ukrainians and Europeans must be allowed to meet with the Americans and Russians to force an end to the war. Only then can they achieve true peace.

Mark Temnycky is a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and an accredited freelance journalist who has been covering Eurasian affairs for nearly a decade.