After several decades of violence and destruction, it appears the political climate in the Caucasus is changing. On December 31, the Russian Federation announced that it had withdrawn its soldiers from the Armenian-Iranian border. Russian troops had previously patrolled the checkpoint for over 30 years.
The news came six months after Russia had fully withdrawn its soldiers from the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region. Russian soldiers were stationed in the region after a renewed skirmish between Armenia and Azerbaijan during the autumn of 2020. The Russians had attempted to broker a ceasefire and peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The negotiations, however, fell through as the truce was quickly violated. Azerbaijan then launched a full-scale invasion of Nagorno-Karabakh during the autumn of 2023. Over 100,000 Armenians were forced to flee the area, and this led to forced peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Now, as both countries enter the new year, Armenia and Azerbaijan will be hoping that their differences over the region will be put to a peaceful end. For several decades, the two countries have fought over the territory. Thousands of Armenians and Azerbaijanis have been killed, and thousands more were injured.
The first step to a new political climate in the Caucasus has been the introduction of a peace force deployed by the European Union. According to reports, the first individuals who will be part of the EU’s border-monitoring mission have already arrived. The peacekeepers have been met with skepticism, however. In 2020, Russia deployed peacekeepers to the region, but the Russians failed to keep the situation at bay. Similarly, while they did not have soldiers present, the United States and Turkey have also sought to broker peace agreements with Armenia and Azerbaijan. These efforts, however, have been slow.
But there appears to be some progress. According to War on the Rocks, Armenia and Azerbaijan appear to be “nearing the conclusion of bilateral negotiations on a peace agreement.” This would spark a significant development in the discussions between the two countries. The vital thing to monitor is whether these negotiations will last. Previous attempts over the past three decades to bring about peace were unsuccessful, and these failed negotiations only brought more hardships and challenges to Armenian and Azerbaijani citizens.
Neither country has shown signs that it is ready to fully accept the terms of the proposed agreement. During the current negotiation process, Armenia discussed the need to demilitarize Nagorno-Karabakh for fear that Azerbaijan may launch another incursion. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan has demanded that Armenia rewrite its constitution to state that Nagorno-Karabakh belongs to Azerbaijan. The two countries have disagreed on these approaches.
While these issues remain, successes have been found in other areas. For example, despite their differences, both countries continue to conduct trade and economic. In addition, senior officials from both countries are still meeting regularly to discuss ways forward to bring about peace. If these countries were not serious about normalizing relations and bringing an end to their differences, then the conflict would still be flaring.
Finally, as the United States and Turkey continue to serve as intermediaries in the peace negotiation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and as the EU begins its peacekeeping mission, it appears that things may finally be taking a turn in the Caucasus. Armenian and Azerbaijani officials understand that this conflict has brought much death and destruction to the region. American and Turkish officials have stated that they continue to support the peace process for Armenia and Azerbaijan, and they believe that there may soon be a breakthrough.
Peace and negotiation take time. It cannot be forced or pushed through. Otherwise, rushed agreements could lead to further complications, frustrations, and potential conflicts between these two countries. After all, the Armenians and the Azerbaijanis have been fighting over the territory for over three decades. It is then no surprise that it has taken time to try and ensure the best possible outcome for both sides.
Will 2025 finally bring an end to the tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan? Will the new year finally see a start in the beginning of normalized relations between these two countries? Only time will tell.
Mark Temnycky is an accredited freelance journalist covering Eurasian affairs and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.
