The Philippines, strategically located at the heart of Southeast Asia, occupies a critical geopolitical position. The current politico-military crisis primarily revolves around the South China Sea, a contested area rich in natural resources and home to one of the world's most vital maritime trade routes. In this context, the country faces an increasingly aggressive China while simultaneously strengthening its historic alliance with the United States.
The United States has been a crucial partner for the Philippines for decades, largely due to the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty. This agreement stipulates that Washington will provide military assistance to Manila in the event of an external attack. Over the years, the alliance has been reinforced through agreements such as the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), which allows the U.S. to construct new military infrastructure and utilize existing Philippine bases for defensive purposes.
Recently, the U.S. administration expanded the scope of EDCA, enhancing its presence in the Philippines with advanced operational capabilities. Additionally, the U.S. regularly participates in joint exercises such as the Balikatan maneuvers, which bolster the operational readiness of the Philippine Armed Forces. For Washington, the Philippines is a cornerstone of its Indo-Pacific strategy, aimed at countering China's growing influence in the region. The contested waters of the South China Sea are particularly sensitive, not only due to the Taiwan issue but also because the U.S. has repeatedly emphasized that any attack on Philippine vessels or bases would be interpreted as a direct assault on American interests.
China, for its part, claims nearly the entirety of the South China Sea as part of its historical territory, despite international rulings rejecting such assertions. In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled that China's claims had no legal basis. However, Beijing ignored the verdict, continuing to consolidate its presence in the area. China’s actions include the militarization of artificial islands, such as those in the Spratly and Scarborough Shoal regions, which are near Philippine territory.
Beijing has also adopted a strategy of "passive aggression," using its coast guard and fishing fleets to intimidate Philippine vessels. Recent incidents have included the use of water cannons against Philippine ships and naval blockades that prevent the resupply of outposts in contested waters. This escalation has driven Manila to seek international support, engaging regional powers such as Japan and Australia.
Beyond geopolitical challenges, the Philippines grapples with complex internal issues that undermine the country's stability. With the election of Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. in 2022, the son of the controversial former dictator Ferdinand Marcos, unresolved issues have resurfaced in public discourse. Despite Marcos Jr.'s promises to promote unity and economic development, the nation continues to struggle with social inequalities, corruption, and a precarious security situation.
A chronic problem is the ongoing conflict with armed groups and Islamist militants in the southern regions of the country. In Mindanao and Sulu, movements such as Abu Sayyaf and the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) remain constant threats. Although peace agreements have been signed with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), violence persists, fueled by religious extremism and poverty. Recently, the Manila government has sought to strengthen the implementation of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region, but the process faces delays and local resistance.
The rivalry between the United States and China has turned the South China Sea into a geopolitical battleground. While Washington views this region as crucial for global maritime security, Beijing seeks to consolidate its strategic and economic dominance in the area. The Philippines, thus, finds itself in a precarious position, forced to balance its national sovereignty against the pressures exerted by two global powers.
The politico-military crisis in the Philippines reflects a broader struggle that extends beyond the boundaries of its territorial waters, significantly impacting the strategic control of the Indo-Pacific. Manila, caught between two opposing forces and already burdened with a challenging internal situation, strives to maintain a fragile equilibrium by bolstering its defenses with traditional allies and promoting diplomacy to safeguard its sovereignty. However, rising tensions - exacerbated by recent Chinese military exercises around Taiwan - significantly increase the risk of open conflict, with repercussions that could affect the entire world.
Matteo Balzarini Zane, bachelor degree in Political Science, International Relations and Human Rights at the University of Padua (Italy). His X account is @m_balzarinizane.
