Months after Maduro was declared winner of the latest fraudulent Presidential Election in late July – in which the opposition candidates Edmundo González and María Corina Machado were confirmed as the true winners – Brazil, under the leadership of President Lula da Silva, has been attempting to mediate for democratic concessions.
Brazil, the biggest country by land mass and population in the region, exercises tremendous influence, and is the largest economic, diplomatic, and military power in Latin America. Through its “neutral approach” to geopolitics, as outlined in Itamaraty’s diplomatic manuals, Brazil has been able to wield influence in both democratic and authoritarian alliances. Neutrality, then, allows Brazil to insert itself into tense ideological and geopolitical conflicts all over the globe to propose itself as a mediator, as it has attempted to do in Ukraine, Gaza, and now Venezuela. In the latter, Brazil has repeatedly expressed the wish for a “peaceful solution,” with Chief of Staff Rui Costa arguing, Brazil “wants to continue and will insist on this role as mediator.”
Maduro, however, in a stroke of geopolitical genius, has lately decided to repeatedly attack Brazil, his most important regional partner and his best chance at regional integration. Venezuela’s Attorney General Tarek William Saab Halabi, who has been a key figure in increasing Iranian and Hezbollah influence in Venezuela, accused Lula of “being a CIA agent.” The accusation, of course, is completely unfounded, especially given that Lula has himself been critical of US military and intelligence policy, including a very public rebuke of the Iraq War in 2006.
Saab then insinuated that Lula’s 2022 election victory was only legitimate because of the independent Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSE)’s certification, equating it to the certification by Venezuela’s National Electoral Council (CNE), which is fully backed and appointed by the Maduro regime. Maduro added, “nobody messed with Brazil” in 2022.
Maduro’s unprovoked aggression towards Brazil was also on display during the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, last week, where both countries were present. Brazil, during the discussion over Venezuela joining the bloc of countries, decided to exercise its influence to veto Venezuela’s entry. The pressure from Brazil was reportedly over growing concerns for democracy, as the bloc, with the new addition of Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates, will increasingly be perceived as an authoritarian, anti-liberal bloc, with Russia, China, and increasingly-autocratic India at its helm.
Maduro's reckless behavior, marked by senseless attacks on Lula, signals a departure from his earlier attempts to maintain a semblance of diplomatic engagement and attempt to come to diplomatic solutions.
Maduro’s complete disregard for his sanctions deal with the Biden administration prior to the election further strengthens his tyrannical trajectory. After signing a deal trading loosened economic and energy sanctions for electoral guarantees, Maduro promptly began rounding up his political opposition and invalidating any legitimate challengers’ attempts to run in the election.
Maduro, however, called the move a “hostile gesture,” grouping it with a “criminal policy of sanctions” by the Western world. That is simply a fundamental misreading of Brazil’s stance, and shows Maduro’s recklessness.
After the attack, AG Saab then said Lula “faked” the cut on his head, to justify his absence from the BRICS Summit, instead sending Foreign Relations Minister Mauro Vieira to Russia. Saab then argued “Lula should be investigated,” adding, this “was nothing more than a deception to perpetrate the veto against Venezuela, evading his responsibility.” There is, obviously, no evidence of this. Lula may have cut his head, but the Maduro regime has definitely lost its mind.
Venezuela’s unprovoked and senseless attacks on Brazil show a disdain for the mediation process, and risk destroying any arduous concessions made through negotiation. Maduro, in Brazil, is losing its only major ally with legitimacy in the region who could help fix this mess. Authoritarian-left states Cuba and Nicaragua have no credibility on the Venezuela question, and certain leftist leaders like Luis Arce in Bolivia, Gustavo Petro in Colombia, and Xiomara Castro in Honduras have fully recognized the election results, losing all credibility amongst democratic states. Mexico and Boric, also leftist leaders who have criticized Maduro, have not shown as much interest in mediating the electoral crisis and its fallout.
Venezuela may be overestimating its freedom of action, as displayed by its arrogance, or, as CNN Brasil analysts Américo Martins and Salvador Strano argued, “Maduro is acting as if Venezuela were already part of the BRICS.” Venezuela’s economic, political, social, and military systems have been on the edge of collapse for years — this move further endangers Venezuela’s economic opportunities; and Maduro does not seem to care. Lula was Maduro’s best shot at regional integration, and he might have just lost it.
Brazil has taken various steps to assuage the concerns and demands of both the Maduro and pro-democracy camps. To help restore democracy in Venezuela, Lula has called out Maduro’s regime for taking on an “authoritarian slant,” said he has not seen the proof that “either side won,” and called for the release of all official electoral records to elucidate on the election result.
To make this pressure more palatable, Lula has extended a proverbial olive branch to Maduro and his regime, setting direct diplomatic meetings with Maduro, and increasing diplomatic communication between Itamaraty and the Bolivarian diplomatic corps.
Venezuela has been in a sort of limbo position in the international arena, increasingly isolated and forced to rely on authoritarian, anti-American allies such as Russia, Iran, Cuba, and, to some extent, China, for regime survival, while still attempting to appear as legitimate and relevant within the liberal international system. Joining the BRICS is part of that balancing act, especially as the BRICS is, as BRICS New Development Bank and former Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff stated in Kazan, an expanding alternative to Western diplomatic and monetary institutions.
Maduro wants to portray Venezuela as a bastion against the American-led liberal world, while still appearing to espouse social justice and inclusive democracy. This is why, despite becoming a dictatorship, torturing and killing political opponents, and employing death squads, Maduro can purport to support LGBTQ+ rights, human rights, and racial justice. These attacks by the Maduro regime fly in the face of its delicate balancing act as a geopolitical actor. Maybe, Maduro has simply stopped caring about appearances and fully embraced his authoritarian fate.
Through this, Maduro has further shown that he cannot be a trustworthy ally, and a problem to regional stability and growing democratic backsliding, after years of funding drug gangs and tyrannical regimes and mismanaging one of the most resource-rich nations on Earth, spurring an immense migratory and humanitarian catastrophe for millions.
With the G20 summit in Brazil beginning next week, Maduro’s belligerent behavior may not only further alienate him but also force regional powers like Brazil to reconsider their engagement strategies. Whether Lula responds with a harder stance or attempts to salvage some form of diplomatic communication will likely shape the region’s geopolitical dynamics in the coming months.
Joseph Bouchard is a freelance journalist and analyst from Québec covering security and geopolitics in the Americas, with reporting experience in Bolivia, Colombia, and Brazil. His articles have appeared in The Diplomat, Mongabay, Le Devoir, La Razón, The National Interest, and Brazilian Report. He currently reporting from Brazil.
