The conflict in the Central African Republic (CAR) is one of the most complex and prolonged in sub-Saharan Africa, characterised by endemic violence, external interventions, and geopolitical interests involving global and regional powers. Its roots trace back to 2013, when a coup orchestrated by the Islamic rebel group Seleka ousted then-President François Bozizé, sparking a violent response from the Christian anti-Balaka militias. Since then, the country has spiralled into violence, with various armed factions fighting for control over territory and natural resources, such as gold, diamonds, and uranium.
France, historically the dominant power in the Sahel, has seen its influence in CAR drastically diminish. After years of military operations aimed at combating jihadist insurgencies in the region (Operation Barkhane), Paris withdrew its troops in 2022, allowing the Russian paramilitary group Wagner to increase its influence in the country. This shift in strategy stems from the failure of military operations on the ground, which proved ineffective in eradicating terrorist cells and stabilising the region. Furthermore, growing hostility among local populations toward the French military presence (perceived as neocolonial interference) often resulted in riots and attacks, significantly contributing to the deterioration of diplomatic relations between Paris and Bangui.
While the United States has always maintained a relatively marginal role in CAR, there has been an attempt by Washington to counter Russian influence in Africa through the deployment of private security companies, in an effort to maintain at least a minimal military footprint in the Sahel region. After 2018, following increased Russian military pressure in the region, Washington shifted its strategy, beginning to apply diplomatic pressure to encourage the Central African government to diversify its security partners. However, U.S. pressure has not led to significant changes, as Touadéra continues to rely heavily on assistance from the Wagner group, which is now deeply embedded in the country’s security apparatus to maintain power. The limitations of U.S. policy are partly due to the lack of a direct military presence in the country and a less assertive diplomatic approach compared to Washington’s usual interventions in the Middle East. It is also reasonable to believe that there is a broader strategic disinterest in CAR, which has never been a central priority for Washington.
China, for its part, has followed a “soft power” approach, which has become one of its hallmarks, choosing to focus on economic expansion rather than military influence. Through the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing has invested in infrastructure and natural resource extraction sites, without imposing excessively strict political conditions, thus attracting the favour of many African governments tired of continuous direct interference from Western powers. It is important to note that, despite the general situation, China is gradually expanding its influence in CAR through strategic investments, without clashing (so far) with Russian or Western interests. In the coming years, the challenge for Beijing will be to balance its desire to expand its economic presence with the need to avoid straining its international relations with other world powers.
In recent years, taking advantage of the void left by the withdrawal of Western forces, Russia has become one of the most influential actors in CAR. The Wagner group has not only helped the government of current President Faustin-Archange Touadéra defend against rebel offensives, but it has also consolidated Russia’s presence in the Sahel region through the construction of military bases and, above all, through control over natural resources, granted to Moscow in exchange for weapons, training, and support to the Central African armed forces and police. This growing Kremlin influence has caused significant international concern, particularly in the United States and the European Union, which see Moscow using CAR as a model of a “regime survival package” to expand its presence in other African nations, including Mali and Burkina Faso. CAR’s strategic importance to Russia is clearly connected to the war in Ukraine, as its plans to expand its military presence in the region by 2030 fit into the “anti-diplomatic isolation” system that the Kremlin is securing in various parts of the world through close cooperation with BRICS countries.
Russia’s presence in CAR is not without direct consequences for neighbouring countries. Between 2019 and 2020, tensions arose along the border with Cameroon due to incursions by Central African rebel groups who, fleeing government offensives, raided villages in northern Cameroon. In 2021, Central African military forces, supported by Wagner contractors, crossed the border into the Republic of Chad during an operation against the rebels, leading to several firefights in which numerous N’Djamena soldiers were killed. These incidents, unfortunately not isolated, have clearly heightened tensions in the region and raised international concerns about the expansion of the Central African conflict beyond its national borders, as well as concerns over human rights violations perpetrated by both rebel militias and the Central African army, along with the Wagner group.
Between 2019 and 2020, the Central African Republic experienced tensions along its border with Cameroon due to incursions by Central African rebel groups. These groups, fleeing government offensives, crossed the border to carry out raids on villages in Cameroon, particularly in the northern regions. The rebels plundered resources and caused mass displacement, creating insecurity in the border areas. The Cameroonian government responded with targeted security operations, but the lack of effective control over the territory made it difficult to contain the incursions. This worsened the humanitarian conditions and fuelled tensions between the two countries.
Overall, the conflict in CAR represents a microcosm of the geopolitical dynamics shaping Africa’s future. Global powers, such as Russia, are exploiting the political fragmentation and institutional weakness of many African countries to strengthen their influence. At the same time, other actors, like France and the United States, are struggling to maintain their role on the continent, while China watches closely to capitalise on every economic opportunity offered by the contingent situation. The conflict in the Central African Republic is likely to remain unresolved for many years, as none of the actors involved seem willing or able to find a sustainable solution, while the Central African people remain trapped in a spiral of violence, poverty, and endless political instability.
Matteo Balzarini Zane, bachelor degree in Political Science, International Relations and Human Rights at the University of Padua (Italy). His X account is @m_balzarinizane.
