This month, millions of Georgias will gather to vote in the parliamentary elections. The stakes could not be higher.
Over the past few years, the ruling Georgian Dream party has started to backslide on anticorruption reforms. Members of the ruling party have sought to implement greater surveillance across the country, and they have opted to strengthen their relationship with Russia. This has caused many Georgian citizens to speak out against the ruling party.
To date, most Georgians want to see their country become more democratic. They also want their country to become part of the European Union. According to a survey by the National Democratic Institute, 79 percent of Georgians support future membership with the EU. They see the importance of Western democratic values, and Georgians want their country to have similar socioeconomic benefits seen within the Eurozone.
Given these aspirations, Georgian citizens have called on greater transparency from the government, and they want their parliament to implement further anticorruption reforms. The Georgian president and members of the Georgian opposition party have also called on Georgian Dream to implement further anticorruption reforms.
But Georgian Dream has ignored these takes. Instead, the ruling party has opted to implement policies that would prolong their stay in power. This has caught the attention of Western organizations as well as politicians in Russia.
For example, the ruling party in Georgia introduced legislation last year that would require various organizations to declare themselves as foreign agents if they “received funds and donations from foreign entities.” After the bill failed to materialize in 2023, the ruling party in Georgia reintroduced the legislation this year. The proposed bill was met with stiff opposition by Georgian citizens and the Georgian opposition. Meanwhile, EU officials said implementing such legislation would “damage potential integration efforts with the West.”
Furthermore, the Georgian Dream attempted to spread disinformation earlier this year, claiming that EU-friendly members in Georgia were trying to orchestrate a coup in the Georgian parliament. The ruling party accused Western organizations of meddling in Georgian affairs, and Georgian Dream even withdrew from the Party of European Socialists, something that has now distanced Georgia from various European political organizations. Following these events, and after further investigations, it was determined that there was nothing to support the baseless claims made by Georgian Dream of an alleged coup. This has further distanced Georgian Dream from Georgian citizens and the Georgian opposition.
Finally, anticorruption organizations are taking notice of Georgian Dream’s shift in antics. When Georgia began a rigorous anticorruption initiative in the mid-2000s, Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index ranked Georgia 67 out of 180 places. By 2018, after completing numerous reforms, the country found itself ranked 41 out of 180 places. This suggested that the Georgian government was taking graft seriously.
But over the last two years, Georgian Dream has taken a turn, and the perception of corruption in Georgia’s public sector has been negatively perceived. In Transparency International’s 2023 ranking, Georgia fell to 49 out of 180 places due to autocratic policies pursued by Georgian Dream. It is believed that this democratic decline will continue if Georgian Dream remains in power. To avoid this trajectory, many Georgians now plan to vote against Georgian Dream in the upcoming parliamentary election on 26 October.
But as Georgian citizens, the Georgian opposition, and international organizations call for greater democratization efforts in Georgia, another matter is at play. Earlier this year, representatives from the Russian Federation stated that Russia was prepared to aid Georgian Dream during the parliamentary election. Russian officials also said that they would “help the Georgian Dream retain power if” asked. These statements suggest that the Russians are prepared to meddle in the Georgian elections to prevent Georgia from moving forward on its democratic path.
Furthermore, there are reports that Russia will meddle in the Georgian elections through cyber activities. The Russians will also increase their propaganda efforts on Georgian social media and in news outlets. Finally, the Russians are reportedly speaking with various organizations within Georgia so that they can coordinate their efforts so that they can support Georgian Dream.
It is puzzling why Georgian Dream would accept Russia’s offer to meddle in the parliamentary election. To date, Russia continues to illegally occupy 20 percent of Georgian territory. In addition, most Georgian citizens want their country to distance itself from Russia. Many Georgians also do not have favorable opinions of Russia. Despite these points, Georgian Dream continues to defy the interests of its citizens. Instead, the ruling party appears desperate to hold onto power. This political party now seems ready to do whatever it takes to ensure its power remains, even if it means siding with an adversary.
In short, there will be much at stake in this year’s parliamentary elections in Georgia. If Georgian citizens elect politicians who have favorable opinions toward the EU, and if these candidates are victorious, then this new Georgian government will continue to implement anticorruption reforms. This group will also work hard so that Georgia can eventually join the EU.
On the other hand, if Georgian Dream is reelected, then it is expected that the government will continue its backsliding. It may also derail Georgia’s EU aspirations, and it will force Georgia closer to a relationship with Russia.
No one is certain about the outcome of the 2024 parliamentary elections in Georgia. The EU and Russia will be anxious to see the results.
Mark Temnycky is an accredited freelance journalist covering Eurasian affairs and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. He can be found on X @MTemnycky
