On Sunday, October 6th, Brazilians went to the polls to vote in long-awaited municipal elections. These elections, held between two federal cycles, were seen as a referendum on President Lula's left-wing government and an opportunity to reshape local leadership.
Within hours of polling stations closing, the results were clear: the conservative movement was the night's biggest winner. Of Brazil's 26 state capitals, the left-wing parties, led by Lula's Workers' Party (PT), failed to secure a single victory. In key races, the PT was defeated by the Liberal Party (PL), which continues to dominate despite the absence of its former leader, Jair Bolsonaro, as well as other right-wing parties.
The conservative landscape is now dominated by two parties: União Brasil (Brazil Union) and Republicanos, with the PL facing a crisis of leadership after Bolsonaro was banned from running for office, with no clear heir apparent. Both are right-wing parties with free-market economic policies, but their social views differ. While União Brasil leans more socially liberal and distances itself from Bolsonaro, Republicanos remains committed to Bolsonaro's socially conservative, Evangelical message.
This division reflects the growing competition within the right for leadership of the conservative movement. Both parties are growing quickly, with the PL’s image tarnished by its former leader’s scandals. It remains to be seen whether the PL will attempt to double down on the Republicanos’ advance and move to their right to capture the growing Evangelical vote, or tone down their message to capitalize on the disaffected big-tent electorate.
These results underscore two key trends in Brazilian politics: growing discontent with Lula's administration, particularly among the center and right, and a broader shift to the right among the electorate. This trend is especially noticeable in suburban areas outside São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, where conservative support has surged in recent election cycles, especially in suburbs and rural areas.
The city of Rio de Janeiro’s seat went to the Social Democratic Party (PSD), a big-tent party that broadly supports liberal democracy and centre-right economics. In São Paulo, the second-round election will be disputed between a centrist party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) and the left’s Socialism and Liberty Party (PSOL).
In Três Rios, a town of 90,000 two hours from the city of Rio de Janeiro, União and Republicanos are celebrating their local and country-wide results, with supporters of both camps lobbing faint insults at each other. The mood is vaguely tense, though things could get worse as the competition for the leadership of the conservative movement in Latin America’s largest democracy grows fiercer.
At a local Catholic church, Republicanos voters were chanting and celebrating their victory, making the party’s growing religious contingency known. Pedro, at the church, said of the election results that “We are happy about this result, God is saving Brazil, and maybe the Lula era was just a test of our faith.” Watching from nearby benches, other supporters nodded along.
União supporters, meanwhile, were concentrating on the gains made in other areas of the country – their celebration tucked away under appartment building balconies. One voter, Camila, said of the night that “It is a disappointing result for us, but the conservatives are advancing, and União did well in the whole country.” João, a nearby União supporter, felt that “The most important thing from tonight is the defeat of Lula’s socialist agenda, we don’t want socialism in this country,” voicing a common message among the conservative base.
Despite this, there are signs of moderation. In Rio de Janeiro, the Social Democratic Party (PSD), a centrist party, won the mayoralty, and São Paulo's second-round election will be contested between the centrist Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) and the left-wing Socialism and Liberty Party (PSOL).
In towns like Três Rios, União and Republicanos celebrated their victories, though tensions between the two parties hint at a growing rivalry within the conservative movement. As these parties vie for dominance, the political battle for Brazil's future leadership is likely to intensify ahead of the next national elections.
Meanwhile, the left faces critical questions. Will the PT and its allies shift further left, consolidating their base but risking deeper polarization? Or will they adopt a more centrist strategy, aligning with parties like the MDB and PSD, which performed well in these elections?
With many seats still undecided and headed to second-round runoffs, conservative parties are in the strongest position, especially in key capital cities. The PT is in only two state capital runoffs—Natal and Porto Alegre—where it faces significant challenges.
As Brazil navigates these political shifts, the results of the municipal elections will shape the national narrative for years to come. The rivalry between União Brasil and Republicanos will influence the direction of the conservative movement, while the left must decide whether to reposition itself or risk further polarization. The outcome of these dynamics will have profound implications for the future of Brazilian democracy.
Joseph Bouchard is a freelance journalist and analyst from Québec covering security and geopolitics in the Americas, with reporting experience in Bolivia, Colombia, and Brazil. His articles have appeared in The Diplomat, Mongabay, Le Devoir, La Razón, The National Interest, and Brazilian Report.
