This week, Azerbaijan held a conference on the “Modern Challenges to the Security of Global Transport Networks.” Over 50 representatives and foreign officials attended the forum. During the event, participants stressed the importance of “expanding information exchange and other areas of interaction” between the participants at the forum so that their countries can adequately address various challenges posed to the world today.
One of the topics of discussion at the forum was the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and how Armenian and Azerbaijani officials can coordinate a path toward peace. During the panel, the Director of the National Intelligence Organization of Turkey, Ibrahim Kalin, said it is “necessary to reach a final peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan.” Formulating a solid peace process would help ensure long-term stability in the Caucasus.
This is not the first time former or current members of the Turkish government have commented on Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. Earlier this year, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan met with Armenian and Azerbaijani officials. During their meeting, Erdoğan said that Turkey “wholeheartedly supports” peace between the two countries. Turkey has also encouraged both countries to reopen trade corridors in the region. Lifting restrictions and expanding trade markets would help boost the economies of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Turkey has also discussed the closure of the Armenia-Azerbaijan and Armenia-Turkey borders. Furthermore, lifting border restrictions would allow economic trade opportunities to present themselves to both countries. The Turks, however, said that both parties must agree to the final peace plans to ensure the process is upheld.
Turkey previously served as an intermediary. During the Armenian-Azerbaijani skirmish in the autumn of 2020, the Turks helped broker a ceasefire agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The ceasefire became uneasy when Azerbaijan enforced a blockade around Nagorno-Karabakh in December 2022. The ceasefire was then ultimately broken when Azerbaijan invaded the region in September 2023.
While the Turks have sought to help these two countries resolve their conflict, another country has also taken an interest in Armenia and Azerbaijan. Over the past few years, U.S. representatives have met with their Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts to discuss the end to the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict. This summer, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. The U.S. official said that Armenia and Azerbaijan should reach a peace agreement “without delay,” and he offered American assistance in the negotiation process.
Outside of these discussions, the United States has also provided tens of millions of dollars in financial and humanitarian aid to Armenia and Azerbaijan. This assistance has been used to help individuals impacted by the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Last autumn, over 100,000 ethnic Armenians fled the area. They have sought to integrate themselves into Armenian society, but they have struggled. Currently, one-fourth of Armenia’s total population lives at the poverty level. In addition, roughly half of the country is at “risk of falling into food insecurity.” This has made things very challenging for the Armenian government and ethnic Armenians fleeing Nagorno-Karabakh.
Meanwhile, the Azerbaijani government has not entirely determined how to incorporate Nagorno-Karabakh into the rest of the country. Azerbaijani officials will need to provide official documentation to residents of Nagorno-Karabakh so that they can receive state assistance from Azerbaijan. State documents, proof of citizenship, and other formal identification will need to be provided to the residents of Nagorno-Karabakh.
In short, there is still much that needs to be done to ensure a smooth and peaceful transition in Nagorno-Karabakh. Many current and former residents of the region will need help assimilating into their new homes, and both the Armenian and Azerbaijani governments will need to formulate a plan that will prevent further hardships for these people.
Turkey and the United States have already offered their assistance to both governments, where they have met with Armenian and Azerbaijani dignitaries on several occasions to discuss the peace process. Negotiations cannot be forced, and a peace process cannot be fulfilled until both parties are satisfied. Nonetheless, Armenian and Azerbaijani officials will know they can turn to their Turkish and American allies during this process. It remains to be seen how valuable and helpful assistance from Turkey and the United States will be during Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s ongoing negotiations.
Mark Temnycky is an accredited freelance journalist covering Eurasian affairs and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. He can be found on X @MTemnycky
