This is part III of a series of articles on lesser known conflicts throughout the world. Part I highlighted The Nagorno-Karabakh Crisis and Part II covered The Civil War in Myanmar.
The historical roots of the conflict between Venezuela and Guyana go back to 1899 when an international arbitration court awarded the largest territory of Essequibo to British Guiana. Since then, Venezuela has argued that the decision was unfair, and has tried several times to revise the terms of the decision. The dispute was unresolved for decades until the discovery of some 11 billion barrels of oil off the coast of Essequibo a few months ago revived Caracas' interest.
The situation worsened in December 2023, when the Venezuelan government held a referendum in which Essequibo's unilateral merger was approved by a majority. Although the result was expected, the turnout was lower than expected, suggesting that the Venezuelan population is less enthusiastic than the government had hoped. However, President Nicolas Maduro used the election to consolidate his internal power, accusing the opposition and foreign entities such as ExxonMobil of opposing Venezuela's sovereignty.
International reactions to the referendum were swift. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has condemned moves aimed at changing the current borders, and many countries, including the United States, have expressed their support for the Guyanese monarchy. At the regional level, the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) confirmed its support for Georgetown, while other South American countries, led by Brazil, expressed concern about the instability in the region.
The strategic importance of Essequibo lies not only in its natural resources but also in its strategic location. For years, Venezuela has been experiencing a severe economic crisis, prompting Caracas to seek new sources of revenue to offset the decline in national oil production. Controlling the region represents a potential lifeline to revive part of the lost economic prosperity. Moreover, for Nicolás Maduro's government, the Essequibo dispute offers an opportunity to bolster nationalism and consolidate internal support at a time of political instability and growing international isolation. Reviving an old territorial dispute allows Maduro to divert citizens' attention from domestic issues such as rampant inflation and widespread poverty. Controlling Essequibo would also extend Venezuela's regional influence in the Caribbean, potentially strengthening Caracas's relationships with international allies like Russia and China, who might be interested in establishing a greater presence in areas near the Panama Canal.
For Guyana, the defense of sovereignty is a national priority: the Essequibo region is more than 60 percent of the country's territory, and surrendering it is tantamount to signing its own death warrant. As a result, the Georgetown government has taken this issue seriously, with the aim of strengthening its position at the UN and the ICJ. Guyana has also stepped up its diplomatic efforts through bilateral agreements with the US, UK, and other Western powers, seeking military aid if attacked by Caracas. The recent discovery of several oil fields will give Guyana the opportunity to become one of the most dynamic economies in South America. Therefore, the protection of these areas is important for the economy and well-being of the country.
The United States plays a major role in this crisis. On the one hand, Washington is interested in stabilizing the region and ensuring ExxonMobil's access to oil fields to protect its domestic energy market. Additionally, the growing Chinese presence in Latin America is increasingly viewed with concern, as there is fear that Beijing might use its economic influence to extend its geopolitical reach. Lastly, it is worth noting that the Venezuelan government of Nicolás Maduro is seen as an obstacle to regional stability and a threat to American interests. The United States has imposed severe sanctions on Venezuela and supported the political opposition, hoping to overthrow the regime; the ongoing conflict offers Washington an opportunity to further isolate Maduro, limiting his ability to maneuver.
The last factor to consider is undoubtedly China, which finds itself in a very delicate position. Beijing has heavily invested in the natural resources of both countries, with interests in both Venezuelan oil and Guyana's nascent resources; it is, therefore, logical to think that it wants to ensure the continuity of its investments and access to energy resources, regardless of the outcome of the dispute. Additionally, social stability in Latin America is a key element for the success of China's Belt and Road Initiative; this suggests that in the event of armed conflict, Beijing might offer itself as a mediator between the parties involved. In any case, it is likely that Beijing could publicly adopt a neutral stance while trying to influence events behind the scenes to secure its strategic interests.
The Essequibo crisis has become a dangerous point of international tension, with a real risk of military escalation that could destabilize the entire region, as demonstrated by the movement of Venezuelan troops into Guyanese territory in June 2024. The international community, including regional and global actors, will need to work intensively to mediate the dispute and prevent, on one hand, a dangerous conflict in a region already unstable due to poverty and organized crime; and on the other, the excessive interference of cross-cutting actors such as China, Russia, and the United States.
Matteo Balzarini Zane, bachelor degree in Political Science, International Relations and Human Rights at the University of Padua (Italy). His X account is @m_balzarinizane.
