Since last October, the Biden administration has pursued one objective in the Middle East: de-escalation. But this policy has succeeded only in deterring Israel from acting independently in pursuit of its security interests in Gaza and around the region. As the simmering conflict between Israel and Hezbollah escalates – including the IDF’s killing of senior military commander Fuad Shukr in response to Hezbollah’s missile strike that killed a dozen Druze children in Majdal Shams over the weekend – rather than avoid war, this policy guarantees it.
When Hezbollah joined Hamas in attacking Israel on October 8 (the day after the Hamas attack), Jerusalem considered postponing a Gaza campaign to address the threat from Lebanon. With its arsenal of 150,000 to 200,000 Iranian-supplied rockets and missiles, Hezbollah poses a far greater strategic threat to the Jewish state than Hamas. Hezbollah’s unprovoked attack – the first cross-border strike since the 2006 Second Lebanon War – provided Israel an opportunity to remove what has become an Iranian sword of Damocles to its north.
However, to avert regional escalation, Biden had sent an aircraft carrier group to the eastern Mediterranean and issued a warning to those “thinking of taking advantage of the situation…don’t”. While these measures were ostensibly addressed to Hezbollah and Iran, they also served to restrain Israel. In a partial bow to American pressure, Israel’s newly formed unity war cabinet chose to first focus on the imperative of rescuing the hostages and defeating Hamas in Gaza.
Though Israel was deterred, Hezbollah was not, and began waging a war of attrition. To date, the Iranian proxy has launched over 5,000 attacks against civilian and military targets in Israel, forcing the government to evacuate communities within five kilometers of the border.
Israel has responded with artillery and air strikes against sites in Lebanon and Syria to target Hezbollah’s military infrastructure, killing over 300 of its fighters and senior commanders.
However, Israel is unable to commit to a larger campaign in the north until it concludes its kinetic operations in the south, which the Biden administration has deliberately drawn out by restraining Israel’s operational freedom against Hamas for fear excessive collateral damage might anger the Democratic Party’s progressive base.
All the while, an estimated 80,000 Israelis remain internally displaced from their homes as refugees. In effect, the administration’s deterrence policy against Israel has allowed Hezbollah to successfully depopulate part of the Jewish state of its Jewish residents.
In the meantime, the Biden administration, along with European partners, has pursued diplomatic channels to negotiate between a major non-NATO ally and a US-designated terror organization. However, as Hezbollah remains as equally committed to destroying Israel as Israel is to not being destroyed, this futile effort has only succeeded in further limiting Israel’s ability to restore security to its northern border.
Then came the night of April 13, when Iran launched over 300 missiles and drones against Israel. The first-ever direct strike between the two countries marked a paradigm shift in the region. Though the United States, Israel and regional partners successfully shot down over 99% of the projectiles, Israel considered a forceful response to restore its own deterrence against its greatest foe.
However, in a phone conversation with Prime Minister Netanyahu that evening, President Biden warned that “if you launch a big attack on Iran, you’re on your own.” Without the support of the United States, Israel elected for a low-level response that demonstrated its capacity to strike Iran but did nothing to reset the strategic balance in the region.
In restraining Israel from responding as necessary to strategic threats from multiple fronts, the administration signals to our enemies that they can strike our ally with impunity.
Israel may soon be able to finally launch a war that restores security and deterrence to its northern border. The recent killing of Hamas military chief Mohammed Deif and overall success of the IDF’s operation in Rafah suggests the Gaza campaign could be winding down, and the Israeli public favors a “full force” attack against Hezbollah.
However, due to the Biden administration’s deterrence, after nearly 10 months of fighting Hamas, the operational window of opportunity for Israel to engage in a war in Lebanon – which would be far more expansive and destructive than the one it is fighting in Gaza – may have closed.
While a cessation of hostilities would allow the IDF time to resupply and could see some or most Israelis return to their homes in the north, their long-term security remains in jeopardy.
In the meantime, Iran will replenish Hezbollah’s arsenal and continue its sprint for a nuclear weapon; Secretary of State Blinken recently stated Tehran is “probably one to two weeks” away from producing enough weapons grade material.
The Biden administration’s anti-Israel deterrence has undermined our ally and emboldened our enemies, which in the Middle East is a recipe for future war.
Daniel Flesch in a Visiting Fellow at The Heritage Foundation.
