Following a tense spring, it appears that Armenian and Azerbaijani officials are making progress on a peace agreement. Earlier this month, foreign ministers from both countries gathered in Washington to discuss the peace process in further detail. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with his Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts, where he stated that “both countries are very close to being able to reach a final agreement.”
Two weeks later, Reuters reported that Azerbaijan had proposed a document to Armenia that highlighted “basic principles of a future peace treaty as an interim measure.” The U.S. Department of State then announced that the two countries had made further progress in their quest for a peace agreement. The United States has also provided aid assistance to the region throughout the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Meanwhile, the European Union (EU) has also increased its efforts to try and help with the situation. Earlier this year, the European body “pledged to give €12 million in humanitarian aid to Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh.” This assistance will help refugees impacted by the brutal attack on the region last year. It may also help them assimilate in their new areas of residence as they recover from the Azerbaijani incursion last year.
For over three decades, Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought a brutal war over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Thousands of civilians have died, and many more have been injured. The most recent skirmish between these two countries occurred last autumn when Azerbaijan launched a surprise attack. The disputed land was forcefully seized by Azerbaijan, and roughly 100,000 ethnic Armenians fled the region.
Since the brutal events, Armenia has struggled to accommodate a large influx of refugees in the region. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan has been faced with challenges in integrating the seized territory into the rest of the country. Numerous complications remain, and they have yet to be resolved. President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan have met several times, but resolving a three-decade-long conflict has been difficult.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev recently stated that the interim document was “80%-90% ready.” Still, for the interim measure to move forward, he said that Armenian authorities must also review the documentation. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan concurred, stating that a peace treaty was “close to completion.”
The recent developments are welcoming signs. Continued dialogue between the administrations of both countries suggests that they are serious about peace discussions, and both countries want to improve relations. Armenia also agreed to “hand over four contested border villages” to the Azerbaijanis. Finally, both countries have discussed the demarcation of borders.
Relations between both countries have also evolved. For example, Azerbaijani authorities have officially invited their Armenian counterparts to take part in the United Nations Climate Change Conference this November. Both countries have also sought to expand their trade routes. These diplomatic acts and economic pursuits would further strengthen the relationship between both countries. These developments also suggest both countries are ready to forge a new relationship.
Despite this progress, one major issue remains. In the proposed document, Azerbaijan called on Armenia to amend its constitution to remove direct and indirect references to Karabakh independence. Armenian authorities have rejected this demand, given their tie to the region. Due to these differences in opinion, the peace process cannot move forward until further discussions are held about Nagorno-Karabakh. Otherwise, if both countries cannot reach an agreement, the friction between the two countries will drag on.
In short, the peace process will not be resolved overnight. The scars and horrors from the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are still fresh for thousands of Armenians and Azerbaijanis, and many will be reluctant to move quickly toward peace. Trust will need to be earned and established, and the administrations of both countries will need to resolve their differences in order to reach a proper peace agreement that will be upheld.
Nonetheless, the progress over the past few months has been encouraging, and officials from the U.S. and Europe will continue to meet with their Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts to encourage them to maintain this dialogue. Time will tell how these negotiations will evolve.
Mark Temnycky is an accredited freelance journalist covering Eurasian affairs and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. He can be found on X @MTemnycky
