After the Myanmar army (Tatmadaw) overthrew the government of Aung San Suu Kyi in a coup on February 1, 2021, the country was plunged into chaos and violence. Peaceful protests against the government were violently suppressed, resulting in thousands of arrests and hundreds of civilian deaths. Minority militias have been fighting for partial or full independence from the central government for decades, increasing the resistance of the army and making internal conflicts more comfortable.
The United Nations and various human rights organizations have repeatedly reported human rights violations by the military, including executions, torture, and indiscriminate attacks on the population. The Security Council passed several resolutions condemning this, but direct sanctions were hampered by the joint veto power of Russia and China. The two superpowers have strategic and economic interests in the region and are therefore reluctant to support policies that could jeopardize their relations with Myanmar and the Tatmadaw (which supplies arms to Moscow).
Rebel groups under the protection of the Federal Government and the People's Defense Forces have stepped up resistance in recent months, but they are seeking greater control, with the military still controlling major cities and key construction sites. The harsh countryside and mountains have deep ethnic groups.
Myanmar's geostrategic position with China and India has long placed it in the middle of the interests of regional and world powers. Its rich natural resources, including oil products, mineral deposits, and forests rich in valuable trees, make it a popular destination for many players around the world.
China sees Myanmar as an important gateway connecting its territory to the Indian Ocean route via the Belt and Road. In this context, Beijing has made significant investments in the development of infrastructure in the country, such as the Kyaukpyu port and the network of oil and water pipelines that cross Myanmar from north to west and connect the Bay of Bengal to China's Yunnan Province. That's why Myanmar's security is so important to China, which has given the government a vague nod that both gauges political support and ensures the country's stability.
Myanmar's security is very important to China because Myanmar is rich in jade, copper, gold, and other precious minerals, which are very important to China. The Chinese market is one of the main exporters of raw materials and one of Myanmar's most important economic resources. This economic cooperation enabled Beijing to gain government approval, equal political support (including using a veto in the United Nations Security Council to impose sanctions on the Tatmadaw), as well as actions to be taken in an effort to stabilize the country. It undermines the junta's decision.
At the same time, India sees Myanmar as a friend who can strengthen its relations in Southeast Asia as part of its "Act East" policy. New Delhi is ready to counter Chinese influence in the region and provide military support to the Tatmadaw and humanitarian assistance to the people. It also maintains good relations with the political government and minority activists operating in the eastern part of the country.
India is particularly concerned about the security of its northeastern border, which has been destabilized by various ethnic insurgencies and internal rebellions. In this regard, support for ethnic minorities in Myanmar could help create an Indian territory that is immune from arms, drug trafficking, and influence.
New Delhi is also investing in infrastructure in Myanmar to improve relations and promote trade between the two countries. These projects include the tripartite highway connecting India, Myanmar, and Thailand, and the Sittwe port, which is part of the Kaladan Corridor plan that will provide India with direct access to the Bay of Bengal.
Domestic ethnic conflicts constitute a significant part of Myanmar's civil war. The country consists of more than 135 recognized ethnic groups, each with its own geography, culture, and politics. Among them, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), and Arakan Army are the main armed forces. The group, which controls mostly semi-controlled territory, saw in the crisis following the attack an opportunity to continue its historic fight against the government in Naypyitaw. All alliances are weak, and now only the importance of the "enemy" can stabilize them. Decades of military conflict and failed attempts to establish national unity have increased tensions between the Tatmadaw and nationalist forces. All parties to the conflict are trying to maintain their positions ahead of the peace process, which makes the peace process very difficult.
In this case, the real victims of the conflict are citizens. Thousands of people were forced to flee their homes, leading to a humanitarian crisis. Refugees living on the borders of Thailand, India, and China often live in overcrowded and harsh conditions.
A solution to the current compromise seems unlikely. Internal differences, foreign interests, and bad military practices make the path to peace very difficult. However, the international community cannot ignore the crisis in Myanmar. Encouraging and uniting for the protection of human rights, providing humanitarian aid, and encouraging dialogue with all parties are important steps that will bring the country closer to a solution.
Matteo Balzarini Zane, bachelor degree in Political Science, International Relations and Human Rights at the University of Padua (Italy). His X account is @m_balzarinizane.
