After the intense conflict of 2020 in which Azerbaijan recovered much of the territory lost in the 1990s, the region is still the scene of clashes and tensions. Despite the ceasefire brokered by Russia, a lasting peace still seems far off.
During 2023 and early 2024, there were firefights along the front line. The most serious of these (Shusha, March 18, 2024), resulted in the deaths of ten Azerbaijani soldiers and seven Armenian soldiers. Both sides accuse each other of violating the ceasefire, intensifying the war rhetoric, and raising international concerns about a possible resumption of large-scale hostilities (UN Press). On May 23, 2024, another incident saw the death of five people, including two Azerbaijani soldiers and three Armenian officers, during a check of a convoy suspected of carrying weapons (Al Jazeera).
On the diplomatic front, the international community continues to seek peaceful solutions. In February 2024, several negotiations were held in Brussels between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, which, however, did not produce significant results as both sides remained firm on their positions. Moreover, despite numerous international organizations repeatedly calling for the opening of safe humanitarian corridors, access to Nagorno-Karabakh remains critical: local communities face severe difficulties due to disruptions in food, water, and medical supplies.
With the victory of the opposition party (Civic Contract Party), the recent elections in Armenia led to a change of leadership that initiated a tougher policy toward Azerbaijan and resulted in a strengthening of defenses in the region. Naturally, this development in the situation has further complicated the already fragile peace negotiations and increased the risk of military escalation.
The situation is further complicated by the influence of other regional players such as the Republic of Türkiye, a close ally of Azerbaijan, which continues to provide military and diplomatic support to Baku and conduct joint exercises with Azerbaijani troops in January 202, raising concerns in Armenia and tension with Russia. It is logical to assume that Ankara’s goal is to strengthen its role as an energy hub between Central Asia and Europe, a strategy that depends on stability and control of energy routes through the Caucasus.
Russian Federation, for its part, maintains a significant military presence in the area through its stabilization and pacification forces, deployed on the ground since 2020. Moscow sees geopolitical control of the South Caucasus as a strategic priority for several reasons. First, that region represents a buffer zone between Russia and the Middle East that is crucial for border security and for preventing the expansion of conflicts and radical movements that could threaten pro-Russian institutions in Dagestan and Chechnya.
Second, Russia seeks to prevent the expansion of European and Turkish influence in that region. The presence of stabilization forces fulfills two tasks simultaneously: on the one hand, it allows Moscow to maintain political leverage over Armenia; on the other hand, it allows it to exert constant military pressure on Azerbaijan.
The Kremlin also has a special interest in ensuring the security of energy routes through the Caucasus. Following the sanctions imposed by the European Union after the outbreak of Russian-Ukrainian hostilities in 2022, Azerbaijan has been confirmed as one of the most important suppliers of oil and gas to European states. It is clear, therefore, that Moscow considers it a top priority to maintain control over energy flows in the region in order to perpetrate its own countermeasure to European sanctions.
Indeed, the South Caucasus is a key corridor for the European Union’s energy supply, and stability in the region is essential to ensure that the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas (TANAP) and Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) infrastructure remains operational with a view to reducing European dependence on Russian gas. It is obvious how on peaceful Armenian-Azeri coexistence depends on the energy security and prosperity of the European continent.
In addition, the EU is interested in containing Russian and Turkish expansion in the region through an approach that finds its fundamental pillars of diplomacy and economic development; this approach aims to create favorable conditions for lasting peace based on the principles of territorial integrity and respect for human rights.
The future of Nagorno-Karabakh represents one of the most complex and persistent challenges to contemporary international security: despite diplomatic and brokering efforts, in fact, a peaceful resolution of the conflict still seems to be far off. Ethnic, territorial, and geopolitical rivalries continue to fuel tensions that threaten not only the lives of people residing in the area but also international security and strategic interests.
Efforts need to be intensified to ensure that the resolution of the conflict is seen not only as a matter of regional stability, but also as a humanitarian imperative that requires a collective and determined response. Only through an integrated approach that combines diplomacy, humanitarian assistance, and economic development can we hope to achieve lasting peace, but in the meantime the possibility of renewed military escalation cannot be ruled out, given the current fragile situation and deep-seated ethnic and territorial rivalries.
Matteo Balzarini Zane, bachelor degree in Political Science, International Relations and Human Rights at the University of Padua (Italy). His X account is @m_balzarinizane.
