Guatemala Must Resist Beijing’s Bullying

“Guatemala,” according to Reuters, “is considering reaching out to develop formal trade ties with China.” We know what happens next. The Chinese Communist Party will do what it always does and attempt to condition trade relations on Guatemala’s denial of Taiwan’s legitimacy (as well as its support for China’s other geopolitical goals). The question is: will Guatemala succumb, or will President Bernardo Arévalo resist Beijing’s bullying?

This is a crucial moment, because Guatemala isn’t just any Latin American country; it’s the most populous country in the world to formally recognize Taiwan. Guatemala is also among the last nations in our region left standing in the wake of China’s unprecedented pressure campaign against democracies in the Western Hemisphere.

Since 2018, Beijing has used a combination of economic bribery and international arm-twisting to force El Salvador, Nicaragua, Panama, and Honduras––all once Taiwan’s diplomatic allies––to betray the island government. This would be concerning at the best of times, but it’s especially concerning now, as an increasingly assertive China uses its power to bend other nations to its will.

Guatemala appears to be standing firm. Last month, President Arévalo released a statement reaffirming his country’s 89-year-old friendship with Taiwan. This follows in the footsteps of Paraguayan President Santiago Peña, who did the same last year. Both leaders’ integrity should be praised; however, further pressure from China is ongoing and ramping up. Whatever the temptation, Arévalo and Peña would be wise to withstand it––not just for Taiwan’s sake, but for their own.

For one, economic ties with China are not all they’re cracked up to be; they’re certainly not worth altering foreign policy for. Despite Beijing’s pledges to other countries in the region, China’s direct investment in the Western Hemisphere has more than halved since 2019, from an annual average of $14.2 billion to less than $7 billion in 2022. Moreover, dozens of regional projects financed by or contracted to Chinese firms, from Costa Rica’s highway network to the Nicaragua canal to Bogotá’s metro system, remain unfinished or uninitiated.

Guatemalans should also consider that bending to China’s pressure is a token of submission to Beijing. Throughout its imperial history, China only intermittently controlled foreign states by force. Most often, it forced foreign leaders to debase themselves by offering tribute and symbolically deferring to China’s primacy. The Chinese Communist Party has renewed this practice under a Marxist guise. Like a schoolyard bully who controls others through fear and force of personality, Beijing seeks to rule Latin American nations by dictating their foreign policy.

The first step to prevent this from happening is to just say “no.” By continuing to recognize Taiwan in the face of China’s pressure, Guatemala reaffirms its own dignity and sovereignty. It also keeps Beijing’s brutal totalitarianism and disregard for human rights at bay. This will benefit everyone in our region, the United States included. What would our nations gain from freely allowing one of the world’s most repressive dictatorships to boss us around?

Guatemala must stand strong and not cave to the demands of Communist China. So far, Arévalo and his government have done right by their friends in Taiwan, who are oppressed daily by the Chinese military. I hope Guatemala will continue to support Taiwan and maintain its recognition, and I also hope Guatemala (and Paraguay) will serve as an inspiration to others to do the same.