Things appear to be chaotic in the Caucasus. This autumn, Azerbaijan launched an attack on Nagorno-Karabakh, a region that has been disputed by both countries. Hundreds of people were killed during the attack, and Azerbaijani forces stated that they would lay claim to the area. They also demanded that ethnic Armenians needed to leave.
Within a matter of moments, the several decade-long conflict may have ended. Armenians have been forced to flee the region, grabbing anything they could from their homes as Azerbaijanis entered the area. It is reported that over 100,000 Armenians were forced to relocate after Azerbaijan launched this recent offensive. Now, Armenia is faced with a refugee crisis.
“Nobody wants to leave his homeland,” Lyudmila Melquomyan told Catholic News Agency as she recounted her escape from Nagorno-Karabakh. “We had to in order to save the lives of our children, to protect them from war.”
Several Armenians are also concerned that Azerbaijan may want to expand its conquest. Having forcibly seized Nagorno-Karabakh, some Armenians have warned that Azerbaijan may attempt to take other ethnic Armenian territory.
But Azerbaijanis see a different picture. Following the renewed fighting in 2020, senior officials from Armenia and Azerbaijan met to discuss a ceasefire. By the start of 2021, a false sense of hope emerged between the two parties. At the time, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that ethnic Armenians would leave the region by the autumn. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev welcomed the news, but a series of delays prevented ethnic Armenians from leaving Nagorno-Karabakh. Pashinyan requested more time, but Aliyev grew impatient. Finally, after two years of waiting, Azerbaijan decided to take matters into its own hands, believing that the Armenians would not live up to their promise.
The crisis has put additional strains on the Armenian government, as it is now seeking to “house up to 120,000 arrivals from Nagorno-Karabakh.” These refugees seek shelter and food, and it is unclear how the refugee crisis will be resolved. There also are several humanitarian issues that remain within Nagorno-Karabakh, such as what will happen with the ethnic Armenians that have chosen to stay, and where Azerbaijanis will settle in the region.
Now, Pashinyan and Aliyev must determine what happens next. The two leaders were scheduled to meet in October, where European officials would serve as intermediaries. But days before the summit, Aliyev pulled out of the meeting, stating that the Europeans had a bias towards the Armenians. Azerbaijanis are now hesitant to meet with their European counterparts.
It should be noted that previous peace talks between the two groups failed to materialize. Recently, in 2020, Russia and Turkey attempted to resolve the conflict by implementing a new ceasefire. The agreement, however, was violated on several occasions. Russia and Turkey were then unable to serve as peacekeepers as they quickly became preoccupied with domestic affairs. In Russia, President Vladimir Putin became obsessed with his plan to conquer Ukraine. The failed invasion has resulted in the deaths of over 300,000 soldiers, and the loss of tens of billions of dollars in defense equipment. The effects of sanctions have also seen Russia lose hundreds of billions of dollars, and its economy has declined.
Meanwhile, Turkey became distracted by its economic issues, where inflation continues to be a problem. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his party also became preoccupied with the Turkish elections, where they were determined to remain in power. Given these domestic issues, Armenia and Azerbaijan were forced to try and find an agreement between themselves as Russia and Turkey could not assist them during these discussions.
Despite these events, the Europeans have tried to broker peace agreements between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Just recently, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock appealed for Pashinyan and Aliyev to finally end their disagreements.
“People throughout the region are hoping for peace,” Baerbock recently said. But this will require a “willingness for the benefit of all Azerbaijanis and Armenians to find a new way of living together.”
Other European officials have also made their plea. During the recent European Political Community Summit, European Council President Charles Michel stated that the Europeans believed in diplomacy and political dialogue.
But ultimately, it must come down to the Armenians and Azerbaijanis to settle their grievances. Previous attempts from the international community to try and dissolve these fractious relations have been unsuccessful. Peace talks should be welcomed, but they should not be forced on either party. This will only worsen the situation.
In short, no one knows when or how Armenia and Azerbaijan will resolve their differences. The feelings of hardship are still fresh, and the discussions surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh are tense. Nonetheless, the international community should tread carefully as it continues to monitor the situation. For now, the globe will need to rely on time. Perhaps it will heal these wounds.
Mark Temnycky is an accredited freelance journalist covering Eurasian affairs and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. He can be found on X @MTemnycky
