As the Lebanese revolution marks its 4-year anniversary this week, the people of Lebanon are reckoning with the consequences of its failures. One particular failure is currently hitting the Lebanese forcefully: falling short of addressing the deeply concerning and entrenched issue of Hezbollah’s influence on the country. As a result, Hezbollah cemented its power-grab on Lebanon and is dragging it into the current Israeli-Hamas war, against the wishes of the majority of the Lebanese people.
On October 17, 2019, the Lebanese people forced their feckless government to resign following 13 days of peaceful protests. They raised their voices in unison against the ruling class, a kleptocracy that has long depleted the limited resources of their small nation and siphoned off much of the aid it received. The regime has consistently driven a wedge between Lebanon’s 3 major sects - Christian, Sunni, and Shiite - by having each kleptocrat present themselves as the guardian of their sect, fostering the constant threat of another impending civil war, corrupting the judicial system, and weakening the nation’s sovereignty leaving it vulnerable to foreign influence. The Lebanese revolution eventually lost steam due to multiple challenges; mainly a prolonged political gridlock led by the kleptocracy as it doubled down on flaring up sectarian divisions, which stood in the way of forming a government that could implement any meaningful reforms. The Lebanese people, many of whom are understandably still living with post-civil war trauma, remained largely caught up in the clutches of this vile political game. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 diverted attention and resources away from the protest movement. The Lebanese also grappled with a severe economic crisis marked by a dramatic currency devaluation, depositors losing access to their money, and defaulting on sovereign debt.
However, the largest obstacle to the success of the Lebanese revolution was that the protesters had been forced by history, circumstance, intimidation -- or some combination of these factors -- to leave out one fundamental demand: the removal of Hezbollah's arsenal of weapons. While Lebanon is under heavy influence from various regional and international powers, the most concerning influence by far has been that of Hezbollah, a Shiite militant and political organization recognized by the US, UK, Germany, the Arab League, and Israel as terrorists. It is also deemed as such by any individual who holds abhorrent the unlawful use of violence and intimidation, especially against civilians, in the pursuit of political aims; without ifs or whataboutism. This influence which has transformed into a strong-hold has deemed Lebanon’s sovereignty, stability, and ability to chart an independent path towards progress nearly impossible. In fact, the terrorist organization is regressing the state of the country by pushing it into direct conflict with Israel at the behest of its patron, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Hezbollah, formed in the early 1980s, originally emerged as a resistance movement against Israeli occupation in Southern Lebanon. Over the years, it has evolved into a complex entity with both a military and political wing, making it a significant player in Lebanon’s political landscape. One of the most alarming aspects of Hezbollah’s influence is its growing presence in Lebanon’s political institutions. The organization has gained substantial representation in the Lebanese parliament paved by corrupt alliances with the kleptocracy, and it has effectively secured veto power over critical decisions. This political power has allowed Hezbollah to further its agenda and create a state within a state.
Hezbollah maintains a formidable military force that operates independently of the Lebanese Armed Forces, which naturally has weakened the latter. Its militia has been involved in regional conflicts, most notably in Syria, taking the side of the Assad regime, where it has actively engaged in combat against various rebel groups and opposition forces there. Hezbollah’s involvement was directed by the IRGC to fulfill Iran’s desire to maintain the Assad regime as a key ally in the region. Hezbollah is now fulfilling a similar duty to the IRGC through direct engagement in the Israeli-Hamas war. The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran helped plot Hamas’s attack on Israel and that the meeting during which the IRGC gave the final go-ahead to Hamas took place in Beirut. Reports from Lebanon point to Hezbollah’s role in providing Hamas with the capacity to build its own drone and missile technology in addition to funding. Since Hamas' shocking attack on Israel, Hezbollah and Israel have been trading rockets almost daily. On Monday, the Israeli military said it would evacuate 28 communities near Lebanon, affecting about 10,000 people. At least 3 Lebanese civilians have died over the past week, including the Reuters journalist, Issam Abdullah. One Israeli civilian has been killed. A number of Hezbollah and Hamas militants also have been killed. Furthermore, Hezbollah is allowing Palestinian factions to do its bidding. On Thursday, Al-Qassam Brigades fired 30 rockets from southern Lebanon towards the settlements of the Western Galilee. Meanwhile, Iran continues to message that Lebanon could be a whole ‘new front’ for the Israel-Hamas war; undeterred by the Ford Carrier dispatched by the US to the region.
This would not be the first time Lebanon gets dragged into conflict with Israel through the sole discretion of Hezbollah and its so-called ‘Axis of Resistance’. Since the withdrawal of the Israeli occupation from Lebanon in 2000, there have been several skirmishes at and around the Israeli-Lebanese border. In 2006, a wider war broke out between Hezbollah and Israel. It was sparked by a cross-border Hezbollah raid into Israel on July 12, 2006; backed by Iran and Syria. The excuse was to secure the release of Lebanese prisoners held in Israeli jails while the real objective seemed to be for Hezbollah to increasingly portray itself as a defender of Lebanese sovereignty against Israeli aggression thereby continuing to justify the existence of its weapons arsenal. During the raid, Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers and killed several others. Israel responded with air and artillery strikes in Lebanon. The conflict resulted in significant casualties on both sides, with estimates of over 1,000 Lebanese civilians and Hezbollah terrorists killed, as well as dozens of Israeli soldiers and civilians. Lebanon faced widespread destruction, particularly in the southern areas, and a horrifying displacement of civilians. The war exacerbated political tensions within Lebanon and has had a lasting impact on the country's political landscape.
However, this might very well be Lebanon’s last war with Israel, if it happens, before Lebanon’s existence is reduced to a state barely resembling that of a country - much like Iraq or Yemen. Both countries saw the same ultimate fate of decimation as they transformed into Iranian proxies. In 2006, Lebanon’s socio-economic situation was still relatively strong and its people had not yet undergone the trauma resulting from a failed revolution, economic collapse, COVID-19 epidemic, and the Beirut blast. Lebanon will surely not be able to bear the devastation that will result from becoming a second front in the Israeli-Hamas war.
4 years ago, the Lebanese missed the opportunity to make a firm insistence that Lebanon is a land fit only for one army and demand the disarming of Hezbollah's "state within a state." Much like a cancer left untreated, Hezbollah continues to metastasize. It is a crucial time for the Lebanese to take agency and uphold their responsibility to counter Hezbollah’s influence in order to get the country out of its self-destructive burden. The How, much like any cancer treatment, will require sacrifices and pain. Despite Hezbollah’s flex of power internally this week through thuggish attacks on the American Embassy, the American University of Beirut, and local businesses, the Lebanese need to stand up to this intimidation and take to the streets in peaceful protests against Hezbollah and the enabling kleptocracy. They must reject the fanatics in their midst. Most importantly, they also need to revive their hope for peace. They should take heart by looking to the massive strides that their Arab brethren have taken concluding in the Abraham Accords and they must form their regional and international alliances accordingly. As Sir Arthur Conan Doyle says in The Case Book of Sherlock Holmes, “We have all neglected opportunities to deplore.” For Lebanon’s sake, may this not be another one.
Dalia Tarabay is a Lebanese activist and resident of New York City. She is the Head of Strategy & Operations for Search at Google (her views do not represent Google’s in any capacity) and was previously a Public Sector Consultant at Booz & Company Middle East. X (formerly Twitter) handle: @DaliaTarabay
