It is not a secret that international peace and stability are increasingly at risk. This is primarily a result of tensions between major world powers that are struggling to address global challenges as their interests diverge on multiple fronts.
This precarious global situation has opened the door for the so-called middle powers to step in to mediate complex conflicts and promote unity in the international arena. ‘Middle powers’ is a concept that sprung during the Cold War to characterize states that have some degree of influence globally, but do not dominate in any one area. Today, the influence of these middle powers is growing rapidly, as they have the resources and the will to facilitate the resolution of current crises.
For instance, Saudi Arabia, a growing middle power, recently hosted talks on the Ukraine war, which included representatives from nearly 40 countries. Last year it was Türkiye, another middle power, that provided a platform for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine at the start of the conflict. While these talks have not yet resolved the conflict, it is evident that middle powers may still play their significant role in the resolution of the most pressing global problems.
There are several reasons why the influence of middle powers has expanded recently.
Firstly, these states purposefully aim to establish good relations with all sides. Türkiye is a NATO member yet engages with Russia. Saudi Arabia has positive relations with both the United States and Russia. India, Indonesia, and other similar states have created a new middle path, preserving relations with both East and West by not taking sides in geopolitical conflicts.
Kazakhstan, as an emerging middle power, also fits into this category. Its multi-vector foreign policy has served the country well for many years. Kazakhstan has good relations with all its neighbours, including China and Russia, as well as with European countries and the United States. This means the country can be a political and economic bridge between East and West, North and South.
In recent years, Kazakhstan’s pragmatic foreign policy has enabled it to become a neutral ground for dialogue and mediation. In 2017, the country began to host high-level talks on the Syrian conflict, bringing together the Syrian government, opposition forces, and regional stakeholders such as Russia, Iran, and Türkiye in the Astana Process, which has played an important role in promoting ceasefires and facilitating humanitarian aid in Syria. In 2013, Kazakhstan also facilitated negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 countries (U.S., China, Russia, United Kingdom, France and Germany), which resulted in the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2015. Kazakhstan also mediated Türkiye and Russia during tense relations between the two countries in 2016.
More recently, it hosted the inaugural Astana International Forum in June this year, which brought together representatives of middle powers and experts to discuss ways to resolve current global crises. The forum offered insights on the vital role of middle powers in global diplomacy in the context of increasing polarization among major powers.
Ultimately, a pragmatic foreign policy of middle powers enables them to act as objective mediators, a role that global powers are currently unable to fulfil due to the bloc mentality and confrontation. The examples of Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, among others, highlight that for politically medium-sized countries, a reasonable foreign policy could be the key to resolving global crises.
Secondly, middle powers remain committed to the principles of the UN Charter. The ongoing war in Ukraine has only intensified ideological divisions. Yet for Kazakhstan, the UN Charter offered a straightforward guide on the conflict. Kazakhstan made it clear that it respects the principles of territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence as outlined by international law. This position contributed to strengthening the UN principles in support of the global order.
Most middle powers adhere to the principles of the UN Charter, championing dialogue, trade, multilateralism and diplomacy. They are adamant that the UN remains the only global organization which can unite all states together. Yet middle powers are not represented on the UN Security Council. Given their growing importance, the Security Council needs to be reformed to allow such states to have a say on global affairs. The United Nations will not succeed in its global mission unless the voices of middle powers are amplified in the Security Council.
International affairs have long been influenced by the role of great powers. Yet the world is changing. Whether it be Saudi Arabia, with its willingness to act as a global balancer and mediator; Switzerland, with its historical neutrality; or Kazakhstan, which has become a prominent facilitator of cooperation between East and West, medium powers are actively taking the reins when it comes to global politics and diplomacy.
This is a welcome development, as middle powers have proven their ability to contribute to rebuilding a culture of multilateralism and diplomatic engagement in an overly polarized world. They can act as stabilizers during escalating tensions, something sorely needed in today's global landscape.
Kairat Umarov, First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan
