Russian forces began attacking Ukrainian port cities and threatened cargo ships entering Ukrainian waters within days of its exit from the Black Sea Grain Initiative. The deal brokered by Turkey allowed Ukraine to continue grain shipments abroad as the war raged on.
Despite the global impact of Russia’s recent escalations, United States policymakers should remain cautious, and focus on reducing tensions with Russia. Turkey has had success negotiating with Russia previously, and the United States should encourage Turkey to find diplomatic means of easing the burden of Russian aggression.
Since the invasion, Turkey has stood out for engaging diplomatically with Russia more than its NATO allies, particularly on trade. Now, the nation has a larger incentive to reduce tensions: Russian threats of attacks against trade vessels in the Black Sea would violate Turkey’s Montreuax Doctrine. Unlike the United States, the wellbeing of Turkish citizens is directly affected by Black Sea trade and conflict.
In this case, Ankara’s incentive to retain its pivotal role happens to be in line with American interests, specifically in reducing American involvement in the region and building peace.
Turkey’s geographic, diplomatic, and economic positioning all put it in a better situation to negotiate with Russia than the United States, on the grain initiative and beyond. While the grain initiative may be off the table for now, it was arguably the most successful and longest lasting diplomatic coordination with Russia from a NATO country since the war began.
Despite the end of the initiative, the recent history of diplomacy between Turkey and Russia is a hopeful sign of a regional actor brokering peace. Just as the START agreements from the 1990s were an iterative method of peacebuilding that eased tensions between the United States and Soviet Union (and then Russia), similar efforts must be pursued now. As an expedient peace deal to end the whole war is unlikely, moderating smaller conflicts within the war is a realistic expectation and a responsibility of regional actors.
The United States is not in a position for moderating these smaller conflicts. It has had limited diplomatic contact with Russia since the war began, with more success guiding Ukraine towards peace terms. High level talks between American and Russian officials have value, but given the lack of a conventional Russian threat to the United States, the United States has limited interests in negotiating a Black Sea trade conflict within the broader war.
To be clear, the United States, like the rest of the world, has experienced higher grain prices due to Russia’s war. The United States should also do what it can to encourage the Turkish to find a solution to keep the rest of the world, particularly the developing world, adequately fed. But Turkey is in a more realistic position to directly negotiate.
After a year and a half of the U.S. offering Ukraine unprecedented military, financial, and intelligence assistance, and no American-led peace brokerage in sight, the United States should seek a partner in Turkey to reduce the damage of the conflict through diplomacy. Statements from officials like Antony Blinken and William Burns criticizing Russia for its exit from the deal may be necessary, but they would be wise to leave the heavy lifting to others.
Other allies in Europe are both capable of helping through diplomatic means and also have populations with much more at stake in the conflict than the United States. Turkey should not monopolize these diplomatic efforts, as other regional players also have stakes and a different relationship to bring to the table.
While the United States has an interest in NATO’s safety and global stability, allies like Turkey should be encouraged to use their own previous successes and leverage to create diplomatic progress and avoid further escalation.
Zachary Weiss is a political risk analyst living in Tbilisi, Georgia. He has conducted research concerning foreign and domestic politics in the Balkans, Caucasus, and Central Asia. Weiss holds a B.A. from Colorado College, where he double majored in Political Science and Russian and Eurasian Studies.
