This month, tensions have renewed between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. Numerous ceasefire violations were reported, and several Armenian and Azerbaijani servicemembers have been injured. A few soldiers have died during this recent skirmish as well.
These events are just the latest developments in the ongoing conflict. For over thirty years, these two countries have been fighting over this territory. Thousands have died during the conflict, and numerous individuals have been injured.
Russia and Turkey have previously attempted to serve as intermediaries in the conflict, but neither has succeeded. In 2020, both countries were instrumental in implementing a new ceasefire agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Russians deployed two thousand soldiers to serve as peacekeepers in the region. Meanwhile, Turkey has sought to establish good relations between both countries.
Recent events have preoccupied both Russia and Turkey. To date, Russia is still launching its invasion of Ukraine. Hundreds of thousands have died during the war, and the Russians have lost billions in military equipment. Despite these losses, Russian President Vladimir Putin is determined to continue the illegal invasion. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has distracted the Russians from other matters in the region. As a result, Russia’s involvement as an intermediary in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has dwindled.
As for Turkey, a variety of factors have impacted this country’s ability to serve as an intermediary. Inflation and a declining economy have put many on edge, and Turkish politicians have been preoccupied with domestic affairs. In addition, Turkey is currently having its presidential election. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is determined to hold onto power, and as the election enters its runoff phase later this month, he will seek to defeat his opposition. As a result, Turkey’s interest in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has declined.
Realizing these two countries are preoccupied with their own affairs, Armenia and Azerbaijan have decided to explore other avenues to try and resolve their disputes. Earlier this month, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met with American officials in Washington to discuss the ongoing conflict.
“Dialogue is key to reaching a lasting peace in the South Caucasus region,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said during the session. “The United States [will] continue to support recent positive momentum on peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia,” he added.
But most importantly, the European Union has enhanced its engagements with Pashinyan and Aliyev. More example, the EU announced that it would establish a Mission to Armenia to monitor tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Europeans would look to stabilize the borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, and they would send individuals to patrol the region.
In addition, Charles Michel, the President of the European Council, met with Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders on several occasions to discuss tensions between the two countries and how they can mend their relations. Most recently, Michel hosted a new series of talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Brussels this month.
During the meeting, Michel “emphasized that [Armenia and Azerbaijan confirm] their unequivocal commitment to the 1991 Alma-Ata Declaration.” In addition, he called on both countries to recognize each other’s territorial integrity. The group then discussed human rights and national security in the region.
Diplomacy has intensified between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the past few weeks. While fundamental disagreements exist over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, the two countries appear to be slowly resolving their differences.
A follow-up session to enhance the dialogue between Armenia and Azerbaijan has been scheduled for early June. The meeting will occur during the second summit of the European Political Community. Pashinyan and Aliyev will meet with Michel again to further their discussions. The meeting will be held in Moldova, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Olaf Scholz will also be in attendance.
These developments suggest that the EU is serious about its relationship with Armenia and Azerbaijan. It also indicates that the Europeans are interested in ending the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and that they will not rest until these tensions are resolved. Finally, recent developments have shown that the EU’s influence in the region has increased while Russia’s and Turkey’s influence has decreased.
The renewed skirmish in Nagorno-Karabakh suggests that current methods being pursued by Russia and Turkey have been unsuccessful. Both countries are also currently preoccupied with their own domestic affairs. As a result, perhaps the increased EU involvement could help improve the situation. European leaders frequently make themselves available to speak with their Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts. While progress has been minimal and slow, both parties are still willing to meet with one another.
Time will tell how the conflict will end. But for now, there appears to be progress between Armenia and Azerbaijan with assistance from leadership in the EU.
Mark Temnycky is an accredited freelance journalist covering Eastern Europe and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. He can be found on Twitter @MTemnycky
