The War in Ukraine: One President Flies, Another Flops

There used to be an unwritten rule in the U.S. Congress that "politics stops at the water's edge.” What this means is that you do not criticize the president when he is in other countries dealing with vital issues — above all issues of war and peace.

This was a rule of national solidarity that the opposition party by and large respected for a very long time. It reflected the reality that America's influence in the global order should not be held hostage to partisan politics, let alone electoral considerations, and least of all to political showboating. For a time, a domestic political truce is a good thing for the country. The opposition party wins by showing respect for the presidential office. 

Reagan's speechwriter Peggy Noonan's comment in What I Saw at the Revolution stays in one's mind: In international settings, “when Ronald Reagan entered a room everyone understood that America was there.” 

The Republican Party has damaged American political culture a great deal in the past several years, with Donald Trump in the lead, even though some of his foreign policy initiatives had merit. The needless damage continued during President Joe Biden's most recent trip abroad, which unfortunately some Republicans utilized to try scoring some cheap points. For example, figures such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, among others, said that instead of worrying so much about Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty, the president should be concerned with America's own, alluding to the southern border and the issue of illegal immigration. This is not only a cheap shot, it is also a very bad comparison, and in any case, it could have waited.

Joe Biden's surprise trip to Kyiv and his NATO meetings in Poland left one with the impression that, whether one supports or opposes him, everyone knew that "America was there." He looked the part and he acted the part.

Changing expectations

As Biden traveled through Europe, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a sorry spectacle. His annual speech on the state of the Russian nation was a flop. There were no military victories to showcase — not even from the fight for Bakhmut that has been his big hope. His explanation that NATO's designs on "ending" Russia left him "no choice" other than to attack Ukraine to stop the West's plans sounded, to put it mildly, as unconvincing as ever. His description of Western culture remains ridiculous — especially its alleged passion for pedophilia.  

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's government has now apparently concluded that the only way to deal with the Russian invasion is to achieve military victory. Negotiations are no longer possible with Putin, only with a new president, and only after Ukraine has battled back Russian military occupation. Kyiv's declared goal is to drive the Russians from all occupied territory — even Crimea. (Even a few months ago, Zelensky still talked about a 10- or 15-year transition period being needed to find a solution for Crimea.)

With Biden's reaffirmation of U.S., NATO, and Western support, the Ukrainians are re-energized. Nevertheless, they realize they must have some new successes on the battlefield to keep Western public opinion engaged and to justify to NATO governments the next logical step in weapons aid: fighter jets such as the F-16, and the American long-range-tactical missile system known as ATACMS. 

American leadership of the coalition remains a sine qua non. Not all NATO countries must be on board. (Hungary's pro-Russian tendencies don't matter.) Military support could continue at a sufficient level with a smaller but active group, with the U.S. as its anchor and largest supplier.

Begin the rebuilding now

Poland, a big country threatened by a bigger one with a history of brutal invasions, is now the acknowledged leader of NATO's eastern front. A Polish-Ukrainian special relationship is natural in that these two countries were historically the largest in the area that Russia acquired out of the dismemberment of Poland that was carried out over the course of three partitions (in 1772, 1793, and 1795). Russia-Poland was also the Pale of Settlement area. These historical Polish-Ukrainian links within the old Russian Empire are one reason Ukrainians say that NATO membership for them is geopolitically foretold. 

The strategic perspective must include several elements. 

First, end the fighting as soon as possible. Limit the human costs. Stop Russia's destruction of Ukraine's civilian institutions and economic infrastructure. Start rebuilding Ukraine. 

Some in Zelensky's government and in Western governments now say that while the war might continue for a long time, it has become conceivable that with new, advanced weapons, Ukraine could win this year. 

Victory must be defined. Kyiv, Washington, and European capitals should consult each other to arrive at that definition. But Zelensky and his government have the deciding vote in the war, which is narrowly defined as being between Ukraine and Russia. The larger group should discuss how to structure the postwar order and Russia’s position within it, which depends of course on what Russia's domestic situation will be.   

Let the rebuilding begin even before victory. This will contribute to Moscow's sense of despair, stripping away its hope for conquest. Companies are already lining up internationally to invest in Ukraine. 

Decide together how, and with what institutions, to deal with Russia’s war crimes and its crimes against humanity. Decide on how to approach Putin's responsibility, if he is still in power. 

Ukrainians know they need significant battlefield success to ensure continued Western support, therefore they are likely to try a big military surprise. One such move would be to break through Russian defenses in Zaporizhzhia and move to the Black Sea in order to cut the land bridge between Russian territory and Crimea. They could isolate the Russian military all the way west to the Dnipro River. (For months the Institute for the Study of War's map has shown an area of "partisan resistance" square in the middle of Zaporizhzhia.)  

Putin has turned out to be a foolish leader. He is destroying the very thing he's trying to aggrandize. His attempt to recreate an empire is hollowing out the metropole and will leave Russian society much diminished.