How Much Can U.S. Patriot Missiles Help Ukraine?

The reported U.S. plan to provide Ukraine with the Patriot air defense system will impede Moscow's strategy of pressuring Kyiv into negotiations by destroying the country's critical infrastructure. But outstanding questions regarding the delivery of the system and Ukraine's needs for other military hardware mean it will also not give a decisive edge to Ukraine. On Dec. 13, U.S. media reported that Washington was preparing to provide the Patriot surface-to-air missile system to Ukraine. Patriot systems could reportedly arrive in the war-torn country in a matter of weeks once Ukrainian troops finish training to use them in an accelerated program at a U.S. military base in Germany. The Patriot has different models of varying capabilities, but can have up to eight launchers that can each hold four missiles with the capacity to strike targets as far away as 99 miles (approximately 160 kilometers), depending on the model. On Dec. 15, Russia's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said the United States had ''effectively become a party to the war'' by supplying Ukraine with the defense system, and vaguely warned that the move ''would mean even broader involvement of military personnel in the hostilities and could entail possible consequences.'' U.S. Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder responded later that day by noting the United States was ''not going to allow comments from Russia to dictate the security assistance that we provide to Ukraine,'' adding that it was ''ironic and very telling'' for Russia to call the provision of the Patriot system provocative given Russia's invasion of Ukraine and air campaign targeting civilian areas. 

• Russian officials have periodically raised concerns about the Patriot system in Eastern Europe. In March 2011, more than a decade before the Ukraine invasion, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Russia had strategic concerns regarding NATO's deployment of the Patriot system eastward, claiming its ability to shoot down Russian strategic nuclear weapons was alarming for Moscow and could necessitate ''military and technical measures.''
• The timing of the decision was likely due to numerous factors, including reports that Iran has agreed to supply Russia with ballistic missiles (on top of the various drones it's already providing Moscow), which would offer a major boost for Russian troops fighting in Ukraine as their own arsenal of tactical ballistic missile systems, such as the Iskander system, dwindles. 

Although there are still many unknowns about the delivery, the Patriot system should help protect civilian areas of Ukraine from Russian airstrikes, enabling Kyiv to shift its resources to the frontlines of the war. Basic information and details about the possible delivery, which has yet to be formally announced, remain unclear, including what variant(s) of the Patriot system Ukraine will receive, as well as how many launchers and ammunition will be included in the delivery (and the type of ammunition). These details will determine how large of a territory the system could defend and at what cost. That said, the U.S. decision to supply Patriot — as opposed to larger quantities of the various anti-air systems Ukraine was already receiving from the West — suggests the system will use a longer-range ammunition variant and serve as a key component of Ukraine's air defense. Thus, using the Patriots to defend civilian areas and regions farther from the frontlines would allow Ukraine to push the S-300 and Buk-M1 systems it possessed before the war (and which its forces are more familiar with) closer to the frontlines to defend Ukrainian ground forces in the east. Russia has been launching waves of air attacks against Ukrainian civilian areas and critical infrastructure, renewing concerns about the state of Ukraine's air defense capabilities and increasing the value of deploying a system like the Patriot.

• No matter the variant, the Patriot system's longer range and greater effectiveness at intercepting ballistic missiles would significantly bolster Kyiv's anti-air capabilities by complementing the NASAMS, IRIS-T and other anti-air systems the West has already provided Ukraine since Russia's invasion. 
• Another key question is whether the United States will authorize the Patriot system's use for shooting down Russian planes in Russian airspace. Ukraine has already used its own weapons to destroy Russian strategic aircraft at base, most recently on Dec. 5. But using a U.S.-provided system to shoot down aircraft in Russia in the future could cross a Russian red line.

The deployment of the defense system will complicate Russia's ongoing air campaign and make it even less likely to coerce Kyiv to the negotiating table. But it does not portend further Ukrainian gains on the battlefield next year or a significant escalation of the war, despite Russian threats. As already seen by Zakharova's recent comments, Russia will use threats to try to stop the Patriot's deployment or at least limit its use on the battlefield in Ukraine, which risks rendering Russia's air campaign unable to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table on Moscow's terms. Moscow will continue to claim the Patriot deployment is an escalatory step that increases the risk of direct conflict between NATO and Russia. Citizens from NATO countries who are volunteers in Ukraine's army will likely have to support the Patriot's deployment, and Russian officials have indicated they will target those in Ukraine helping operate the system. But the Western-led security alliance is unlikely to respond with force if citizens of NATO countries are killed in Ukraine while supporting the system in a private capacity, as these individuals are helping the Ukrainian army as volunteers and are not operating under NATO's formal direction. Indeed, such volunteer fighters have already been killed in Ukraine, and these casualties have yet to trigger a NATO-Russia escalation. Furthermore, the system does not give Ukraine the capabilities it needs to actually secure the advantage on the battlefield needed to retake more of its territory, which would first and foremost require the West to supply Ukraine long-range strike capabilities to destroy Russian logistics capabilities farther behind the front line by, for example, supplying Ukraine ATACMS long-range ammunition for the HIMARS systems that the United States has already given Ukraine. Even then, better-defended Russian positions and recent Ukrainian accusations that Russia is preparing for a major new ground offensive in 2023 mean that Russia's manpower advantage will continue to limit Kyiv's ability to retake territory.