In the lull between major national elections, by-elections arouse intense media interest and thus give the ordinary person an excuse to talk politics. Such intermittent elections can serve as indicators of the changing political landscape if not direct appraisals of the sitting government’s popularity. In Britain, several by-elections are to be scheduled this month and the most significant is in Wakefield, which will be as much a signal of Boris Johnson’s fluctuating appeal as it will be a measure of the efficacy of the Labour Party, the political opposition headed by Keir Starmer. Anything but a Labour victory would cast serious doubts over Starmer’s leadership.
In theory, the Wakefield by-election should be an open goal for Starmer. The constituency is located in the once-industrial heartlands in northern England, a region known in electoral politics as the Red Wall because of its’ unwavering and dependable support for the Labour Party. In the specific constituency, the outgoing Conservative Member of Parliament had been convicted of sexual assault of a 15-year old boy. In the country more generally, there is a cost-of-living crisis with inflation at its highest for 40 years and the Prime Minister is facing a revolt within his own party. Such a by-election should be an automatic protest vote against the Conservative government and Boris Johnson ought to be on the ropes.
But remarkably Labour has not gained a parliamentary seat from the Conservatives since 2012. It has not won a national election since 2005, when Tony Blair was its leader. Wakefield was one of many Red Wall constituencies to turn blue in the 2019 general election. Labour had held the seat for a whopping 89 years before the Conservatives won with a slim majority of 3,358. It is a key Labour target and if the party has any viable path back to power under Keir Starter, it must win Wakefield. And yet, in recent local elections just weeks ago, Labour was unable to reclaim its heartlands in the Midlands and the North.
Labour is deeply disconnected from its once loyal base, a significant chunk of which voted to leave the European Union in the 2016 Brexit referendum. The divide between the “leave” and “remain” sides has continued to dog British politics since the vote on the country’s membership to the supranational union. Despite the mandate to leave, Labour’s ambiguous position on the issue has been costly at the polls. In fact, some leading figures, such as the then shadow foreign secretary, Emily Thornberry, openly ridiculed leave voters, who were quickly assuming the position of Britain’s “deplorables.” Sixty-three per cent of Wakefield voters backed Leave, while the Labour candidate, Simon Lightwood, is a “Remainer” who served as a staffer for Wakefield’s previous Labour MP, Mary Creagh, another Remainer who lost the seat in 2019. More of the same, then.
There are other reasons for this disconnect. The party finds itself way out in Woke-field as its metropolitan elite seeks to co-opt an amalgamation of marginalized groups into a winning electoral strategy. Using the guise of “intersectional representation,” the formula is a rather economical way of doing stakeholder politics—the bluff and bluster of what counts as progressive politics these days. While the strategy has worked for the Democrats in America, where racial politics is more embedded in the country’s political structure, it has had little success in Britain.
Thus, after Labour’s heavy election defeat in 2019, the new leader Keir Starmer pledged to nominate candidates with ties to local communities, instead of parachuting in candidates from party headquarters. In 2020, he tweeted, “The selections for Labour candidates needs to be more democratic and we should end NEC impositions of candidates. Local Party members should select their candidates for every election.” In 2019, there were many spectacular defeats, such as in the safe seat of West Bromwich East, where the party parachuted in a millionaire “kebab king” from London. Even then, “hard left” socialist stalwarts were also casualties, including the “Beast of Bolsover,” the legendary Dennis Skinner, who, until defeat, had held his seat since 1970. It was quite clear: the metropolitan elite running the party hated its own base and the feeling was mutual.
The party is riddled with Woke identity politics, exacerbating both the literal and figurative distance from its’ heartlands, especially in its’ rather obvious contempt for the common man. Because racial politics does not carry the same electoral power, gender and sexual politics has shaped the culture of the party. It turns out that a platform that elevates a discourse centered on “masculine” or “hetero” privilege does not translate well in constituencies like Wakefield.
For all the talk of representation, the party does not resemble its base in style and manner. Labour’s last three leaders—Ed Miliband, Jeremy Corbyn, and the current one, Starmer—lack the kind of common touch that gave Donald Trump his populist appeal. Despite, or perhaps because of his eccentricities, Boris Johnson has that likability factor. Personalities do matter in elections, especially when there is little to distinguish the parties on the substance of policy. (Both parties are currently bickering over whose leader drank what and where during the coronavirus lockdowns). The idea of having a “personality” or having “character” is out of fashion in the current Woke cultural moment. Perhaps such qualities are even thought of as offensive and politically incorrect. The nondescript Starmer fits the bill for the culture that dominates his party. Its tactics during this parliament have been to position Starmer as “not Johnson,” much like the Democrats positioned Biden as “not Trump” in 2020.
Yet another sign that Labour has insulated itself from its base is Starmer’s U-turn on his pledge to field local candidates for parliamentary seats. The shortlisted candidates for the Wakefield by-election were favored over popular party members with deep local ties, so much so that the local party executive committee walked out of recent hustings in protest at the selection. In an ingenious move, the Conservatives have picked a candidate born and bred in Wakefield, and who has served on the local council since 2006. The selection is only a start in the Conservatives’ bid to retain the seat, for this will be a tough campaign and Labour electioneering has already zeroed in on the former MP’s sexual assault conviction.
In another tough campaign in the country’s last significant by-election, which took place in the neighboring West Yorkshire constituency of Batley & Spen in 2021, Labour squeaked over the line with a razor thin majority of just 323 in what should have been another open goal and thus clearcut victory. (In the other notable by-election in 2021, in Hartlepool, the Conservatives gained the seat from Labour in what was only the second time a governing party won a by-election since 1982.) To garner the sympathy vote in Batley & Spen, Labour ran Kim Leadbeater, the sister of the former Member of Parliament for the constituency, the slain Jo Cox, who was brutally murdered shortly before the Brexit referendum. This by-election was also marred by divisions within the party. The requirement for candidacy of a minimum of one year’s party membership was waived for Leadbeater’s selection, leaving many local activists dissatisfied with the process.
In an attempt to capitalize on strong dissatisfaction amongst the constituency’s racial and religious minorities, veteran firebrand socialist George Galloway captured 22 per cent of the vote, an indication that American-style racial politics won’t be enough beyond urban metropolises like London. It’s not just the white working-classes that are falling out of love with Labour in the midst of the current cultural and political realignment. As it seeks to recapture the constituency of Wakefield while still way out in Woke-field, Keir Starmer’s Labour Party has some work to do.
