The Europeans are sleepwalking through history, while Biden naps next to them. Italy’s recent presidential elections are just the latest indication that far too many Europeans continue to ignore the grave security threats posed by Russia, China, and Iran.
Russia has an army on Ukraine’s border, ready to invade. China is trying to divide and conquer Europe—and pummeling little nations like Lithuania that dare to stand in their way. Iran is paying the Houthis in Yemen to make war on Europe’s allies in the Middle East.
What’s the European response to all this? Germany elects a coalition government that doesn’t agree on anything. British voters are fixated on Partygate. The French are heading into a presidential election that offers only incoherent choices for sound foreign policy.
Italian voters, too, seem oblivious to the need to elect leaders determined to get serious about helping safeguard the transatlantic community and their own national security. They have just re-elected Sergio Mattarella as their president of the Italian Republic. Why? Because they couldn’t agree on anyone else.
The outcome of the Italian election, where the head of state is elected by parliament and regional delegates, flowed from political chaos. The governing center-right coalition failed to elect a conservative candidate for lack of votes, while the center-left coalition limited itself to blocking the proposals of others. The result: stalemate. Mattarella’s re-election was the compromise.
Stalemate is becoming the norm. Italian democracy is becoming increasingly polarized and introspective. The politicking and negotiations around the elections focused entirely on domestic political issues, ignoring the larger geopolitical problems facing Europe.
Italian voters, too, forgot that one of their government’s main duties is to protect them from foreign threats. The president of the Italian Republic exercises tremendous influence on matters of defense and foreign policy. He chairs the High Council of Defense, appoints the prime minister, and has a say in the selection of other ministers. Over the last decade in particular, Italian presidents have played an increasingly active role in important foreign policy issues.
What’s the problem? Mattarella, a longtime center-left politician, has never been all that strong on the transatlantic community. At 80, he is even less energetic than Joe Biden. In his seven years of presidency, he has favored the French view regarding European autonomy, which is ambivalent about the threats posed by Russia and China.
Mattarella was the main Italian advocate of the Quirinale Treaty: a bilateral agreement, signed last year, which has strongly consolidated the French-Italian relationship. In all this, it is perhaps no coincidence that, while avoiding criticism of NATO, Mattarella is a vocal supporter of European defense and strategic autonomy, joining Emmanuel Macron’s Fantasy Island approach to national security.
Italy has moved closer to Beijing during the seven years of Mattarella's presidency. Mattarella is also close to influential sectors of progressive Catholicism that favor the controversial agreement between the Vatican and China, signed in 2018.
What’s next? Campaigning for the next Italian legislative elections is about to get underway. That will doubtless create turbulence in the current grand coalition government, weakening the center-right coalition and making Rome more vulnerable to influence from both Moscow and Beijing.
The domestic struggles in Europe will have huge consequences for Washington. The fact is that Europe cannot defend itself outside the context of the transatlantic community. Instead of taking their own security seriously, too many Europeans indulge in vapid dreams of European autonomy. None of this is made better by the ambivalent leadership of the Biden administration. A lack of determined leadership from Washington risks losing America’s most crucial geostrategic partner.
China, Russia, and Iran would not be squabbling over Europe if Europe did not matter. A strong family of European nations that care about their own security and independence is a nightmare scenario for Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran. The Italian elections are another reminder that that is not the Europe we see emerging.
Stefano Graziosi is an essayist and a political analyst who writes for the Italian newspaper La Verità and the weekly magazine Panorama. A Heritage Foundation vice president, James Jay Carafano directs the think tank’s research on matters of national security and foreign relations. The views expressed are the authors' own.