Yemen Braces for Another Year of Devastating War

By Stratfor
January 03, 2022

As Yemen’s civil conflict grinds on, the world’s worst humanitarian crisis will deepen and a political settlement will become harder to reach over the next year, driving a cycle of instability that will keep the war-torn country a geopolitical proxy theater. The civil war in Yemen recently entered its seventh year, creating what the United Nations and other international organizations now see as the deadliest humanitarian crisis in the world. And it’s a crisis that still has no clear end in sight, as cyclical warfare patterns and evenly-matched military actors on either side continuously push the conflict further away from a political settlement or cease-fire.

Persistent Houthi drone and missile attacks against Saudi territory stoke a cycle of military escalation that makes it difficult for the warring sides to back down. These attacks — which pose a threat to Saudi Arabia, as well as Yemeni government forces and civilians — are becoming more frequent. Saudi Arabia and the Saudi-led Yemeni government coalition always respond to such Houthi attacks with retaliatory airstrikes and boosted ground offensives. Houthi capability improvements and their seemingly endless arsenal of projectiles — some sourced from Iran, others from internal stockpiles and workshops — means that Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government will likely continue to respond militarily to Houthi strikes, continuing a tit-for-tat cycle of violence and destruction. 

Key frontlines remain deadlocked despite intense fighting, making each side reticent to withdraw. Fighting remains heavy along the front lines in the central provinces of Shabwa and Marib, as well as the coastal area of Hudaydah. The lack of territorial exchange indicates that the warring sides on the ground are relatively evenly-matched. Moreover, the resources in these areas — namely, Marib’s oil reserves, Hudaydah’s port and coastal territory, and Shabwa’s politically valuable land — lower the incentive for either side to back down from the frontlines. While continued stagnation is likely, the frontlines will shift if Saudi Arabia deems the material and human losses too costly to maintain, or if the Houthis’ recruitment efforts begin to stumble. 

The prolonged war has exacerbated the civil conflict’s initial drivers, making them harder to resolve. Resource inequality and scarcity, locals’ mistrust of external actors (including Saudi Arabia and Iran), and societal, sectarian and geographic divisions between Yemeni communities were among the drivers to spark the conflict in 2014. All of these factors have grown worse over the course of the war, reducing the probability of a negotiated end to the conflict. 

Given these factors, Yemen’s warring parties are unlikely to reach a political settlement in 2022. The ongoing conflict will, in turn, keep Yemen as a key geopolitical proxy theater for Saudi Arabia, Iran and other external actors with interests in the region. Yemen’s deepening instability is one of the factors currently pushing Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to consider rapprochement with Iran — which provides economic and technical support to Yemeni Houthis — in the hopes that closer communication with Tehran will mitigate the threat of conflict spilling over into Saudi or Emirati territory. The strategic imperatives compelling Riyadh to maintain its overall military intervention in Yemen, however — namely, the need to ensure Saudi Arabia’s territorial integrity and preventing a Shiite, Iran-leaning or extremist government from taking the helm in Sanaa — are unlikely to shift over the next year. With the Saudi-led Yemeni coalition remaining squarely on one side of the war, and Houthi rebels remaining on the other, every cease-fire effort in 2022 is likely to break down along the familiar fault lines that have stymied previous political settlementsaimed at ending the conflict. The continued conflict will also force the United States to remain involved in Yemen in order to protect Saudi Arabia, one of Washington’s key regional partners, from the growing threat of Houthi missile and drone strikes.

A Stratfor Intelligence Report.

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