As protests around the United States have expanded and evolved over the course of the last two weeks, we have covered tactical developments for our Threat Lens clients. Though some other readers may have perceived a lack of coverage, we wish to reiterate that we are not ignoring these historic events, but rather taking the time and effort the issue deserves to evaluate the broader geopolitical impacts of the social and political movements underway in the United States. In the interim, we wish to share excerpts of previous Threat Lens coverage with our Worldview and Enterprise subscribers; additional coverage on the topic on Worldview will be forthcoming.
Editor's Note: These security-focused assessments are among many such analyses found at Stratfor Threat Lens, a unique protective intelligence product designed with corporate security leaders in mind. Threat Lens enables industry professionals and organizations to anticipate, identify, measure and mitigate emerging threats to people, assets and intellectual property the world over. Threat Lens is the only unified solution that analyzes and forecasts security risk from a holistic perspective, bringing all the most relevant global insights into a single, interactive threat dashboard.
U.S.: Threats of Targeted Violence Persist Even as Social Unrest Subsides (June 4, 2020)
Many cities have announced a scaling back of curfews in response to reduced violence ...
This does not, however, mean that the threat of social unrest has passed. Extended protest movements like this one have a tendency to deescalate over the week only to resurge over weekends... Even as widespread unrest subsides, the threat of potentially more harmful targeted attacks by radical individuals or small groups remains.
Examining Whether the Terrorism Label Applies to Antifa (June 2, 2020)
U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted [in 2019] that authorities were giving "major consideration" to naming antifa an "organization of terror" ...
But does all of that make antifa a terrorist organization? The short answer is no — if for no other reason that antifa isn't really a group or organization to begin with. That, however, doesn't mean that some who have adopted the ideological mantle of anti-fascism do not engage in terrorist or militant activity — something that could have profound implications for anyone caught in the middle of a battle between antifa and the far-right.
U.S.: Nationwide Protests Lead to Extended Business Closures, Unrest Likely to Continue (June 1, 2020)
As protests spread, it is clear that the underlying motivations behind acts of violence go beyond anger at Floyd's death. As with other protests, more violent and opportunistic individuals tend to use the cover of more peaceful protesters to pursue their own more radical political or material ends. Even if the remaining three officers involved are arrested and charged, violent protest activity is likely to persist for at least the coming week. Continued confrontations between police and protesters have led to more incidents of police-related injuries and perceived offenses that will drive further protests. Widespread anti-police rhetoric is likely to lead to targeted attacks against police officers and other figures of authority, including corporate security personnel.
Use Your Words: De-escalation Techniques for Corporate Security (June 1, 2020)
... the real problem with "stop and frisk" and "broken windows" was not a legal one. The practices removed common sense discretion from street cops: They could no longer choose which violations to pursue and which to ignore.
These policies put police — whether they wanted it or not — into an almost exponential increase in the numbers of individual, adversarial contacts with members of the public. One result was that the statistics were against them, and against the people with whom they interacted: more adversarial contacts meant more violent outcomes. Another was a vicious cycle in which an increasing potential for violence simmered just below the surface on both sides in each contact ...
Although we speak of de-escalation as something new, the fact is that the techniques we're discussing are interpersonal skills virtually everyone potentially possesses, and that includes those in positions of authority. We should also add that the concept of "de-escalation" is moot when there has been no escalation in the first place. But because it is a set of skills, and because not everyone has them to the same degree, it's arguably a best practice to make it formal, and mandate its use whenever possible.
U.S.: Death During Arrest in Minneapolis Could Cause Continued Protests (May 28, 2020)
The use of deadly force by law enforcement in the United States has led to prolonged anti-police protests and associated violence nationwide. In this case, the official response has so far been contrite, with national, state and local leaders all condemning the incident and calling for investigations. Such a response suggests that the police officers involved will at the very least be investigated and there will likely be a trial, at least to an extent placating protesters.