The tiny sultanate of Brunei is rarely in the news. Why should it be? It occupies a small part of the island of Borneo with two much-larger and better-known countries, Indonesia and Malaysia. Except for the monarch’s free-spending ways and his implementation of Sharia law, not much happens there of international interest. And the Bruneians like it that way.
Lately, however, a few news outlets and foreign policy experts have been asking questions about Brunei. They have quietly noted that Brunei’s economy isn’t as robust as it had been and, more important, that there are signs that the Sultan and his government appear to be leaning more to China than to the West. No one knows how significant or, for that matter, how true these observations are. But a few of them are eager for more dialogue between Sultan Bolkiah and the U.S. government to clarify the situation.
Front pages haven’t mentioned Brunei lately, but, in fact, the Bruneian government has been making news that has shaken domestic politics. In early February, the Sultan, in a surprise move, shook up his cabinet. Six of his top ministers were summarily replaced, severing many years of continuity between Brunei and the rest of the world.
Cabinet changes do happen in Brunei, but usually every five years. This reshuffle occurred just a few short years after the previous set of changes in 2015.
The new cabinet produced some good news. Two of the deputy ministers for the first time were women. This clearly shows a promising, progressive tendency for the Sultan. He was lauded inside the country, especially by women.
Otherwise, the purpose of the cabinet changes is a matter of conjecture.
News reports have recently noted an influx of investment into Brunei from China and, also, Saudi Arabia. These inflows make sense given Brunei’s diminishing oil and gas reserves and a government budget that has been under pressure lately. What is not known is whether the financial condition of the country faces serious strains or, more to the point, whether heavier financial reliance on China is an indicator of shifting alliances on the part of the Sultan.
In other words, the West and the U.S. are curious whether the long, steady, reliable rule of the Sultan is fading even slightly for economic reasons and what the geopolitical implications are.
One straw in the wind is what some Bruneian officials have called its “silent” agreement with China over disputed territory in the South China Sea. The government is not actively involved in the territorial dispute, but its lack of participation in the debate, which has roiled much of Asia, has been noted by scholars and raises a second question: Is Brunei favoring China in a way that reduces the importance of the U.S. as its strategic ally?
These questions have tossed a modicum of uncertainty into the ASEAN alliance. The other members of ASEAN can be forgiven for wondering whether the cabinet changes are an attempt to strengthen the government or are a sign of weakness.
All of this may be hyperbole and wasted worry. Brunei remains an important provider of oil and gas at a time when prices are either rising or are stable after a long period of low prices. In other words, any economic concerns are probably disappearing as energy revenues rise. Also, the 71-year-old monarch is not being challenged as the head of government from any quarter.
Nonetheless, the U.S. and its western allies want to hear from the Sultan and his government about what is happening on the island of Borneo. In particular, they would like to be reassured that Brunei isn’t moving – or worse, stumbling – into China’s orbit. Increased communication with Washington would go a long way toward answering that question.
Eugen Iladi is a freelance reporter based in Virginia who covers politics, conflict, business and development in emerging markets.
