The Scottish National Party knows a thing or two about how to run a referendum. Their campaign for Scottish independence culminated with a vote in September 2014 that was far more closely contested than expected. The Yes campaign was a swirl of positivity and of color, from the deep blue of the Saltire to the bright yellow of the SNP. The nationalists lost the battle at the ballot box, but they used the vote as a platform for their subsequent takeover of nearly every parliamentary seat in Scotland, mostly at the Labour Party's expense.
If the SNP knows what works, europhiles have to be discouraged to hear, in the aftermath of this week's official and underwhelming launch of the ‘in' campaign for Britain's EU referendum, that the party is considering, eh, sitting this one out. Fraser Nelson, building on comments by Scottish Deputy First Minister John Sweeney:
"‘As the SNP can see, the ‘In' campaign is turning out to be a rebadged version of ‘Project Fear', the campaign that almost destroyed the union in last year's Scottish independence referendum. It relied on negativity, arguing that Scotland is too weak, too small and too poor to make it as an independent country. Obvious nonsense, and it annoyed so many Scots that 45 per cent voted to end the union -- the high water mark of the separation movement. As Swinney said, that negativity looks like being deployed again: that Britain would be too small, too poor to make it without the EU.'"
THE CAMPAIGNS
Indeed, the launch of the In campaign scores low marks for presentation -- Sweeney called it depressing. Britain Stronger in Europe is to be chaired by Stuart Rose, a former boss of the Marks & Spencers retail chain, who struck a jarring, defiant tone. The adherence of three former prime ministers lends some gravitas to the EU pitch, but with a disgruntled electorate, it's hard to say what the effect of old-guard elites such as Tony Blair and John Major standing up for the distant, anonymous elites in Brussels will be. Perhaps the swagger and marketing élan of Richard Branson will help.
The Out side, meanwhile, is for the time represented in the main by two organizations, Vote Leave and Leave.eu. The latter is a vehicle for Nigel Farage, the leader of the anti-immigrant United Kingdom Independence Party, whose rapid ascent, along with the the entrenchment of a solid euroskeptic bloc in the Tory party, was in large part responsible for pushing Prime Minister David Cameron to promise the referendum on EU membership in 2013. The Electoral Commission will appoint just one official campaign after Cameron announces the referendum date. That will probably be Vote Leave on the No side.
THE ALTERNATIVES
Cameron's European partners are voicing increased frustration at Cameron's inability to articulate concrete proposals for the renegotiation of Britain's relationship to the European Union. Cameron ultimately will be the face of the In campaign, and what he brings back from Brussels -- if he extracts any concessions at all -- will be pitted in some form against the following arrangements, as described by the Centre for European Reform:
EEA Membership: Britain could join the European Economic Area and enjoy unimpeded access to the single market. For an example of how this would work, look to Norway.
Customs Union: Internal tariffs would be eliminated within the union, and the members (in this case, Britain and the European Union) would agree to common tariffs with outside countries. Turkey shares such an arrangement with the EU.
Swiss-Style: The Swiss, as told by the CRE, develop their legislation with the EU in mind, and their relationship with the Union is built on bilateral sectoral agreements.
Free Trade Agreement: Like a customs union, but Britain could set its own trade policies with non-European countries.
THE STAKES
Polling shows a Britain that is split on the question of EU membership. The battle lines are starting to be drawn, but very little is known, not even the date of the vote. What is sure is that Britain's choice will do much to determine the course of the European Union. Adriano Bosoni:
"The United Kingdom's push to renegotiate its status in the European Union threatens the European project. In the past, the bloc granted special concessions to the British, such as allowing them to keep the pound sterling during Maastricht Treaty negotiations. These concessions inspired other EU members to ask for similar treatment -- most notably Denmark, which also managed to opt out of the euro.
However, this is the first time that London has openly demanded the return to a previous stage in the process of European integration. At no other time has a country tried to dissociate itself from the bloc in this way. The decision not only challenges the Franco-German view of the European Union but also makes a compromise extremely difficult and risky between France and Germany and the United Kingdom."
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Around the Continent
Germany's identity: Germans have long tied their identity to Europe -- not only for the apparent historical reasons, but because the country's economy relies on exports to its European partners, and Berlin's dominance of the eurozone is key to maintaining German strength.
But the influx of refugees continues to change attitudes and expressions. Politico EU's Matthew Karnitschnig has been tracking the story -- see his report on the growing split between Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats and their sister party in Bavaria, the CSU, which is threatening to take the matter to court. Karnitschnig's latest report:
"In a country that long defined citizenship by blood and ethnicity, few questions are more sensitive than ‘who is a German?'
"‘I would rather live in a society that is dying than in one that, out of economic and demographic speculation, is being mixed together with foreign peoples and made young again,' Botho Strauß, a prominent German writer and playwright, wrote in Der Spiegel last week under the headline ‘The Last German.' ‘We have been robbed the sovereignty of being in opposition.'
"The reaction was swift. The literary supplements of Germany's leading newspapers, the country's forum for intellectual debate, flayed Strauß. Germany's left has long associated any affinity for ‘Germanness' with the ideology of the Nazis. The left-leaning Die Zeit called Strauß' essay ‘a document of madness,' concluding that the respected author had ‘destroyed himself.'
"The force of the reaction reflected the sensitivity of Strauß' subject. What worries many on the left is that Strauß' critique will resonate as Germans become increasingly fearful about absorbing such a large, predominantly Muslim population."
Dutch publication Elsevier offers an on-the-ground view of the dynamic. Correspondent Emilie Kossen:
"Demonstrations last week in the East German city of Sachsen featured not only the logo of the anti-Islam PEGIDA group, but also the flags of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) euroskeptic party and the extreme-right National Democrats.
"This is increasingly the case all across Germany. The refugee crisis is making brothers of right-wing groups. Last year PEGIDA was mostly alone in demonstrating against the flow of refugees.
"Now ... a steadily increasing number of concerned citizens is joining the actions, often in their thousands, political researcher Hajo Funke told the German newspaper Die Welt. This motivates political parties such as AfD to join, expressing their fierce opposition to current German law."
Not under Putin's thumb anymore? The ‘Last Dictator in Europe,' Belarus's Alexandr Lukashenko, has won election to another term. Bad news for the Kremlin? Moscow Times on how Belarus has loosened Moscow's asphyxiating embrace -- and how Europe may stand to benefit:
"[W]hile cozying up to Europe, Lukashenko has appeared to distance himself from Moscow."The rapid deterioration of ties between Russia and the West triggered by Moscow's annexation of Crimea and support for rebels fighting Kiev troops in eastern Ukraine has also given Lukashenko the opportunity to position himself as a peacemaker and portray himself in a more positive light to the West.
"Last year, the Belarussian leader said that Putin's recent foreign policy could mean Lukashenko losing the title of Europe's last dictator, bestowed on him by U.S. officials."
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