Summary
Talk of renewed fighting in eastern Ukraine is escalating, as are the tactical movements fueling concerns. Negotiations remain troubled, and despite communications between Kiev, its Western backers, separatists and Russia, hostility remains. The political status of the separatist regions and Moscow's broader regional imperatives continue to prevent true tactical de-escalation on the battlefield. Though violence never really disappeared, even after several cease-fire agreements that included the withdrawal of weaponry, both sides now appear to be increasing their ability to conduct armed operations again. Stratfor still does not foresee Russia engaging in a large military operation in Ukraine. However, the current instability and higher concentration of forces on the demarcation line may rekindle fighting with limited offensive operations in the coming weeks.
Analysis
Over the past few days, Ukraine has signaled that it is increasing its retaliatory use of artillery fire against the pro-Russian separatist forces along the front line. The Minsk agreements initially required heavy artillery over calibers of 100 mm to withdraw from the demarcation line. While heavy artillery did withdraw for a time, activity by these artillery systems has steadily grown over the past few months. Ukraine's inability to enforce the withdrawal and its hesitation to settle the political status of the separatist regions have forced Kiev to move its artillery back to the front line and respond to continued cease-fire violations with its own firepower.
Following the Ukrainian announcement that the military would begin responding more consistently to incoming artillery fire and the movement of Ukrainian artillery pieces to the demarcation line, the Donetsk-based separatists similarly announced that they would once again amass their artillery on the front line. The artillery systems in separatist-held Donbas had previously been moved to warehouses away from the front line, but observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe noted that these warehouses were empty months ago. Some extra artillery pieces may still be deployed, but the statements come after an increase in heavy weapons and fire along the demarcation line had already been observed over the past few months.
In a notable incident Aug. 12, separatists also fired larger-caliber Uragan-type rocket artillery at Ukrainian positions. Smaller-caliber rocket artillery had already reappeared on the separatist front, but the greater use of heavier Uragan-type rockets is notable; the ammunition used in these rocket launchers is scarcer than those of the smaller Grad rocket launchers. The continued use of these weapons systems would indicate Russia's support for (or at least approval of) such separatist operations.
Areas of Conflict
Looking ahead, there are several indicators of potential escalations along different sections of the front line. A large operation breaking out of the Donetsk and Luhansk areas is unlikely at this point, since no appropriately sized force has been visibly assembled yet. In the Donetsk and Luhansk areas, however, there are several hot spots where separatists or Ukrainian forces could attempt to achieve limited objectives in an effort to force the other side into a more accommodating position at the negotiating table.
One of the most contentious points on the demarcation line continues to be the city of Donetsk. Ukrainian forces currently hold the town of Avdiivka, while separatists hold the airport and contested town of Mariinka. Both sides have deployed a significant amount of forces nearby, and frequent artillery shelling continues. In this area, communication originating from specific separatist units has also become sparse, which could mean units have been rotated on the front line or that renewed efforts to safeguard operational security have been implemented. Both possibilities could mean units expect more activity in those sectors.
In the Mariupol area, ranging from the coastal town of Bezimenne to Starobesheve, there have been reports of a growing troop presence and tense military movements. Ukrainian forces have also recovered control of a small village on the front line. Closer to Mariupol itself, fighting near Shyrokyne has put Kiev in a tough position as it pulls volunteer battalions out and replaces them with regular military forces, including naval infantry. Some Ukrainian security elements have claimed that the rotation could result in the loss of Shyrokyne to the separatists.
Finally, in the Luhansk area, fighting persists in Shchastya, just north of Luhansk city. It, too, could prove to be a location for offensive operations. The Donets River anchors the front line in the sector, and a move beyond the river could rapidly destabilize the front line along the entire area.
Things to Remember
While there is a clear possibility that offensive operations will resume, it is important to remember that those offensives have narrowly defined objectives. Localized escalations similar to the Debaltseve standoff, which lasted beyond the cease-fire, could emerge at various points on the front line. Separatists could even try to take control of more territory around the city of Mariupol, but even there a massive assault on the city would surpass these objectives and risk raising Western sanctions, something Russia has avoided thus far. Nevertheless, even a confined escalation could easily prompt additional U.S. measures, such as tightening sanctions and expanding security support to Kiev.
It is also important to realize that separatists are not the only force that could initiate offensive operations. The Ukrainian military has been trying to increase its capacity since the cease-fire, and it has received large quantities of equipment from its own defense industry as well as foreign supporters. Kiev, which is perceived to have greater capabilities, may seek to contest separatist resistance on the battlefield rather than at the negotiating table.