The fact that he made no visits during his first year of his second term, especially around August, which is the traditional time for visits marking the surrender in 1945, led some to believe that he would continue to let cabinet members attend while personally refraining from the gesture. But Abe made no secret of the fact that he regretted not having paid his respects during his first term.
For Abe such a pilgrimage is very personal. After all, his beloved grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, could easily have become the 15th Class-A war criminal enshrined in the Yasukuni. Kishi managed the wartime economy of Japan and was detained during the occupation but never tried. He later went on to become the prime minister who negotiated the U.S.-Japan security agreement.
The larger question for most Japanese was what this visit, plus some other recent actions, portends for the coming year. The overriding question concerning Abe has always been whether he can suppress his deeply conservative instincts, which are not shared by a majority of Japan's people, who would prefer a focus on the economy.
For most of his first year, however, Abe managed to suppress his conservative/nationalist id and stay on message. As the new year opened, he smoothly pivoted back to his main message of economic revival. In his first press conference of the year, he urged Japan's companies to raise wages for its workers, especially as an increase in the national sales tax looms in April.
One is likely to hear more of this kind of jawboning in the coming months, as the premier seeks to ensure that more of the benefits from Abenomics trickle down into the pocket books of ordinary people. In its first year Abenomics made some impressive gains. The stock market ended the year at its highest level since 1972. A 20 percent fall in the yen versus the dollar was a boon to export industries.
But if the premier is to maintain his popularity, and thus his political capital, he must demonstrate that Abenomics doesn't just benefit hedge fund managers. That means persuading parliament to approve some potentially controversial measures such as lowering the corporate income tax (at a time when the government is raising the sales tax).
At his year opening press conference, Abe also alluded to a subject that he hasn't mentioned very much in recent months -- amending the constitution. Rewriting the U.S.-written document is a cherished dream not only of Abe himself, but of virtually all right-wing politicians in Japan, but it would take an enormous amount of political capital to enact changes any time soon.
But Abe has the benefit of time. He has more than two years remaining on his first term as president of the Liberal Democratic Party, a prerequisite for being prime minister. He can run for another three year-term. So he has the luxury of postponing any action for a long time. He may delay action for tactical reasons but he won't give up. As he told NHK national television, "constitutional reform is my life's work."
