China’s economy has become something of a Rorschach test. The 5% growth target for 2024 that Xi Jinping yesterday said the country had met? One set of economists looks at it and says the economy is collapsing, the figures are probably fudged, and that a recession is likely to begin this year anyhow. The other side says the government is probably right, and that while Beijing’s economy is slowing, these problems may be overcome in 2025. They can’t both be right, even if they both have a point. But the camp to which you belong to appears to be determined by where you sit.
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