How much de-risking will ever be enough? Kurt Campbell, U.S. President Joe Biden’s lead Asia diplomat, hinted in a recent interview that the United States was nearly done with new rules limiting Chinese access to technology and investment. “We have tried to make clear that there is a difference between a narrow de-risking and a broad decoupling,” he said. “At the end of this effort, the idea is to begin consequential diplomacy with China.” Yet almost by definition, the narrow measures introduced so far only moderately reduce risks related to China, especially in scenarios involving a military conflict with Beijing. As a result, demands in Washington policy circles for more stringent measures targeting China are likely to grow, creating a downward de-risking spiral that was not originally intended.
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