There is growing speculation that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers (OPEC+) will agree on June 4 to cut production. Brent crude prices fell below $73 per barrel this week, and price declines in recent weeks erased all of the gains since the last voluntary OPEC+ cuts were announced in early April. The Saudi energy minister recently issued a warning to “speculators” betting on deeper declines, which the market interpreted as a signal of potential cuts. Whether OPEC+ announces a steeper production cut or decides to stay the course this weekend, it faces a dilemma. Russia has failed to dial back production as promised in recent months, and maintaining credibility will be difficult without better compliance from Moscow.
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