Asked to provide a recipe for World War III, many historically minded analysts might mention growing belligerence by dissatisfied great powers; inconsistent system responses; and a succession of economic downturns and domestic political upheavals, followed by a short-term crisis that pushes the system to the brink. Yet a new set of risks is emerging. Today, the ambitions and risk-taking of a jostling, often increasingly assertive crowd of middle powers seeking a larger voice in world politics is causing widespread turbulence in the global system as well as new challenges for U.S. statecraft.
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