I have been following the ins and outs of Europe’s relationship with China for the past five years. Still, as 2023 begins, I am cautious about predicting where this relationship is headed. The known unknowns are increasing and the horizon has become disconcertingly blurred. In the final weeks of 2022, we saw China suddenly abandon the draconian COVID-19 restrictions that had come to define the country over the past three years—a policy reversal that has unleashed a deadly wave of infections across the country. We enter the new year with no end in sight to Russia’s brutal war in Ukraine and with fears of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait on the rise. There are worrying divisions in Germany’s government over China policy, which are poisoning the European debate, and cracks in the transatlantic relationship that risk deepening as the Biden administration presses ahead with new measures to restrict trade and technology ties with China. I am struggling to discern a clear path forward in 2023, but I have spent the past weeks speaking with a wide range of policymakers, diplomats, and executives in Europe, China, and the United States to assess the mood and to attempt to cut through the fog.
