The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and the challenges faced by the Russian army have increasingly fed discussions about the political future of Russia, presidential succession, and the danger of a collapse of the Russian state and its economy. In many of those scenarios, the North Caucasus and Ramzan Kadyrov are framed as a growing liability for Moscow and its internal political stability. This policy memo investigates how the war in Ukraine is changing power dynamics in the North Caucasus by looking at Kadyrov’s governance methods, his regime’s role in Ukraine, and the potential for unrest in the region. Whereas the Chechen leader has used the war, his Kadyrovite forces, and even his teenage sons to display ever-increasing loyalty to the Kremlin, Ukraine’s Chechen battalions, portions of the diaspora, and a significant number of North Caucasians are aligned against Moscow, resulting in growing social and political confrontations in the region.
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