To Vladimir Putin, the war in Ukraine is obviously not an end in itself. Rather, it is one of multiple means by which he’d like to attain multiple aims. Of these, one appears to be somewhat overlooked and undeservedly so, in my view: It is to accelerate what Putin would like to be Russian elites’ clean break from a “morally bankrupt” and “declining” West, so that Russia can blossom as a separate civilization in alignment with the “great civilization” of a “rising” China. This is being sold both to Russia’s elites and to its general public as Putin’s grand vision of a once-in-a-century-or-more change of Russia’s “civilizational choice.” However, I argue in this research brief that, in reality, it is an exercise in realpolitik meant to position Russia in the emerging global order in a way that its rulers believe will be most beneficial to their country’s vital interests and for them personally.
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