Russia’s invasion of Ukraine emboldened Kazakhstan’s President Kassym Jomart Tokayev to finally step out of his predecessor’s shadow in a bid to chart a new path for his country. Kazakhstan, a state historically under Russian influence, now endeavors to follow an independent foreign policy where Nur-Sultan can pursue opportunities irrespective of the Kremlin’s preferences. Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Tokayev’s efforts toward this end required appeasing Russia by deferring to Moscow on Eurasian security matters. However, Russia’s disastrous war in Ukraine irked Kazakhstan’s decisionmakers and dramatically deteriorated bilateral relations between Moscow and Nur-Sultan. For Tokayev and his government, the Kremlin’s jingoist foreign policy is increasingly too much to stomach.
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