Yes, NATO’s new Strategic Concept adopted at this week’s summit defines Russia as “the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area.” Tensions have not been this high along the NATO-Russia frontier since before the end of the Cold War. NATO and Russian planes are conducting aggressive reconnaissance flights in the narrow airspace over the Baltic Sea, and both sides will likely step up those flights now that Sweden and Finland are on track to join NATO. The current dispute over Russian access to its exclave on the Baltic Sea, Kaliningrad, through Lithuania highlights the potential for conflict to spread beyond Ukraine into a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia. Belarus is also becoming more of a concern to NATO as Russia increasingly uses it to stage attacks on Ukraine.
