To be sure, all the traditional tools of investment analysis still matter. Geopolitics is not a magic 8-ball. It is an intellectual framework and a practice that generates the necessary strategic insight to create alpha (that is, a strategy to “beat the market”). Going forward, making investment decisions in a multipolar world without geopolitics is akin to flying blind in a storm. As Marko Papic wrote in his recent book Geopolitical Alpha: “Getting the market right, from here on out, is as much about geopolitics as it is about valuations.” Geopolitics by itself is not sufficient, but to make the best possible investment decisions in a deglobalizing, multipolar, energy paradigm-shifting world, it is indispensable.
